New England Revolution Q3 Analyst Report
The Revolution's third quarter results leave a playoff appearance hanging in the balance as the final nine games of the season await...
Overview
The New England Revolution rolled into the third quarter on a strong finish to Q2, winning the last three games to close the quarter and kicked off Q3 with two wins in three. The Revs then faltered hard in the four games before Leagues Cup, taking just one point from four games. Upon the resumption of the MLS season, the Revs roared past Montreal, 5-0, before a humbling 2-0 setback to Real Salt Lake to close the quarter.
Revolution head coach, Caleb Porter, set a Q3 points target of 15 points(1.66 points per game) but the team only managed 10, a 33% percent miss to the downside. Analysts had expected 1.35 points per game, the team achieved only 1.11.
The Revs were below the 1.25 points per game playoff line target in Q3 for the second quarter this season and declined from Q2’s 1.5 points per game pace.
The results were a 44.5% year-over-year decrease from the second quarter of 2023 when the team achieved 2 points per game. Despite the disappointing results, the Revs still sit within striking distance of the playoffs as they are currently five points off ninth place but with two games in hand against all competing teams.
Analyst note: Both Q1 and Q2 were eight matches, Q3 and Q4 are nine match quarters.
Performance
The Revs scored 13 goals in the third quarter, an increase in goals per game and goals overall from Q2’s 10 goals and 1.25 goals per game. The increase in scoring came despite a decrease in the underlying attacking numbers. Shots, shots on target, corners and touches in the opponent’s penalty area all declined in Q3 relative to Q2. All were down relative to Q1 as well, this suggests an improvement in the team’s overall ability to be efficient in goal scoring situations.
Defensively, the team saw an uptick of goals allowed per game to 2.11, 19 in total across 9 games. This was in comparison to 1.81 goals allowed, 29 in total, in the season’s first 16 games. This despite Q3’s expected goals allowed figure being the lowest of the season at 14.5, even with an extra game.
After 25 games in 2024, New England is outperforming 2023 in terms of corners and touches in the penalty area on a per-game basis, while being essentially flat in shots on target and down on shots overall. That has led to a decrease in both expected goals and xG from open play in 2024 from 2023, the Revs are underperforming on both so far this season.
Results
The third quarter’s three wins included one at home and two on the road, the home win coming against Atlanta United, and road wins versus Cincinnati and Montreal. The Revs tied the home game with FC Dallas. Losses came against Columbus, Seattle, Orlando, Philadelphia and Salt Lake. Two of the five losses were at home.
The Revs were 22nd in MLS in points per game during the period of their nine games in the third quarter. It should be noted that not all teams played an equal number of games. The top 18 teams in the period from June 22 to August are highlighted below, as are the Revs, 18 representing the number of MLS teams making the playoffs.
Quarter Highlights
The team won two games on the road, including against second-placed FC Cincinnati
The win on quarter open was the team’s fourth in a row
A season-high five goals were scored in the win against Montreal upon the team’s return to MLS play on August 24
Only shutout in two games
The team won their group in Leagues Cup
Tailwinds
Addition of team record signing, Luca Langoni and defensive midfielder Alhassan Yusuf during MLS summer transfer period
Giacomo Vrioni, Dylan Borrero, Nacho Gil, Carles Gil, and Peyton Miller all recovered from injuries picked up over the summer
Return to form of Bobby Wood, scored five goals in five games while adding an assist in games played from July 20 to August 24
All four remaining home games are against teams currently outside the playoff places
Headwinds
Tomas Chancalay is injured for the remainder of the season
Talented youngsters, Noel Buck and Jack Panayotou departed the team to go on loan
Outside back, DeJuan Jones was traded in return for cap space and a player considered to be a downgrade in the same position
Alhassan Yusuf, Xavier Arreaga, and Esmir Bajraktarevic will miss a key game on September 7 and possibly more games due to international call-ups
The last two games of the quarter are away to Inter Miami and Columbus Crew, two of MLS’ best teams in 2024
Continued concern about the team’s rate of players missing games due to injury
Analysts Projections/Points per Game
It is expected the Revolution will need to reach at least 40 points on the season to reach the playoffs and possibly as many as 43 points to finish in ninth position.
Contributing analysts project 1.36 points per game in the 4th quarter. That is roughly 12 points and when taken together with the 26 points gained so far this season totals to only 38 points for the season.
Contributing analysts included; Greg Johnstone, Andy Judd, Sam Minton, Thomas Pinzone
Additional Analysts Comments:
“The Revs will largely take care of business at home but struggle to take points on the road and narrowly miss playoff qualification.” -Thomas Pinzone
“5 of 9 are on the road and I don’t see much opportunity to pick up points away from home (2-3 points from @ ORL/CLT/HOU/CLB/MIA is as generous as I can be). Also don’t necessarily see the Revs sweeping their home games (vs STL/MTL/NSH/DC). I have them on 11 points from 9 games and missing out on the postseason.”-Andy Judd
Rating
Taking just one point from four games before Leagues Cup left the Revs in last place going into the MLS break. Even with a resounding victory against Montreal and the return to health of many injured players a playoff run seems unlikely. Too much damage was done during the summer injury crisis and overcoming two poor quarters in the last nine games is a huge challenge.
When factoring in the opposition, number of away games and interference in player availability due to international callups for the fourth quarter, the points per game projection from the reporting analysts is reasonable. An expected points tally of 38 at season’s end likely means the season ends outside the playoff places.
Given the expectation of missing the playoffs along with the Q3 points per game miss to the downside the Revs have been downgraded to sell.
Great work on Q3. I will be surprised if they do make it into the playoffs. Porters style of play can not produce the points needed against the top teams.
Thank you for this analysis.