It's been no secret that the two most recent New England Revolution losses have struck a certain chord with the fanbase. Still reeling from a solid yet fruitless outing against the Galaxy a few days ago, the Revs head to Yankee Stadium Citi Field to play the dastardly Pigeons of NYCFC (8pm ET, AppleTV) who they literally tied a couple of weeks ago at Gillette.
But while the fanbase has been crying out for another striker, and Leo Campana still out, Marko Mitrovic remains blatantly unphased. And so do I.
Sam Lattof
Okay, the loss several weeks back against Toronto was perhaps weirder than the game against the Galaxy...but still understandably frustrating. Yes, New England went down in both games in the first half 0-2, but were by far the better offensive team.
The Revs tallied a 8-for-25 shooting performance, a 55/45 possession edge, and 2.7 xG versus allowing 3-for-7 and 1.2 xG against LA and then a late red card aided 65% possession against TFC with 6-for-24 shooting and 2.7 xG again versus 1-for-3 shooting for the Reds and 0.1 xG generated obviously not counting the own goal.
I would like to point out that Revs fans would have committed work number level crimes for singular games like this under Caleb Porter let alone anything this consistently potent. In fact, Porter's last win, a 2-1 affair in Columbus saw New England take just 10 shots, put 5 on target, and generated 2.4 xG in what I would assume was a rarity late in his tenure. Pablo Moreira's first win as interim in late September against Atlanta saw both Dor Turgeman and Leo Campana score minutes apart thanks to a 7-for-19 shooting effort and 1.7 xG generated.
So why am I throwing all of these numbers and bad memories at everyone. Because as much as we can and should complain about Turgeman's performance so far this year, the soccer New England is playing right now is infinitely better than where they were a year ago. Growth and change takes time.
Under Mitrovic, the Revs attack is about as wide open and fluid as any in the league with danger lurking just about everywhere on the field. New England has accomplished this with three starters injured for seemingly half the year and very glaring black hole of production up top. That is absolutely a Coach of the Year level turnaround in my opinion.
Seth Macomber
I again want to be as fair to Turgeman as I can, he's getting into a ton of great spots and doing a lot of hard work in and around the box. According to the fine folks at American Soccer Analysis he has generated about 9 xG so far this season, which is like Top 20 or so in the league and right next to some guy named Luis Suarez. Yes, his 6 goals and therefore -3 Expected Goals minus Goals number (xG-GF) is like Top 10 for most underperforming. But that's not the alarming stat.
His -4 Pre shot to Post shot xG number however is worst in the league and I think is the accurate reflection of just how bad Dor's finishing has been at times this year. Basically as far as I can tell this metric (if I did get it right) basically solidifies that Turgeman is absolutely doing less with the chances he has been getting and that is a gigantic issue he needs to solve before the front office does it for him.
But I am on Team Marko on this one...the Revs are not always generating "Big" chances (which I think on FotMob, SofaScore, etc., are shots at or above like .15 or .20 xG), and their 57 big chances created on FotMob is literally middle of the league in 15th, but they're also not just firing low percentage stuff at the goal all game either.
Mitrovic and the Revs have done so well to get where they are in the standings by playing a very positive brand of soccer so far this year that it really is hard to complain about anything. Yes, I wish there was more counterattacking and a little more direct and speed focused play at times, and certainly a lot of problems could be solved with a true target man up top for Carles Gil and Jack Harrison to aim at. But even if Adam Buksa isn't walking through that door, it's been pretty darn good ride so far.
Mitrovic has full belief in his team to comeback from two goals down, and it's easy to see why. Yes the LAG and TFC games were a little fluky in how the Revs went down 0-2, but they certainly played like they were capable of winning the game despite the scoreline. I'm going to have to check with Andy Judd on the very low number of comebacks, if any, that occurred in the Caleb Porter era.
And quite frankly, playing well enough to be in games week in and week out, that's I think more than half the battle. Sometimes ball no go in net is the unfortunate outcome of playing a pretty good game. It's a lot better than ball is probably never going in net cause every shot is bad and far away because the style of soccer being played isn't capable of generating even decent chances.
Anyway, we're again joined in rapid succession seemingly by the intrepid Matthew Mangam of New York Soccer Journal who really should not be talking to us after my now fully deserved shot at Rutgers a month ago in my Mexico to CONEMBOL column after his beloved Scarlet Knights were taken to the woodshed by the UMass F Minutemen. It was a bad job by me for not predicting the eventual El Tri qualifying loss at Azteca to Peru or Bolivia by a 3-0 or 4-1 scoreline as being the same as Rutgers losing a $1.55 Million dollar buy game by double digits.
Be sure to check out my answers to his questions as well as their game coverage of tonight's game from Larry Wayne Chipper Jones' summer home over on their site.
Seth Macomber
TBM: Any late transfer business NYC took care between our last meeting and the end of the window?
Nope, no late transfer business for NYCFC. But Friday’s game against Nashville marked the return of Alonso Martínez and Aiden O’Neill, who were both on the bench. O’Neill came on in the second half, making his first appearance since undergoing surgery after starting every game for Australia at this summer’s World Cup.
Martínez didn’t play against Nashville, but it was the first time he was included in NYCFC’s matchday squad since tearing his ACL last November. The Costa Rican likely won’t play against New England, but his return to the pitch will be a big moment for him and the club once it happens.
TBM: The Pigeons seem to be stuck in a rut of draws, but shutting out Nashville is probably always a good game. What have been the positives and negatives from NYC's games against the Revs/TFC/NSH?
I think the New England and Nashville games were more positive results; the tie to Toronto was disappointing considering NYCFC took the lead in the first half and yet again conceded a goal after the 70th minute.
In the tie with the Revs, NYCFC went down early but responded quickly and avoided dropping points, which they’ve struggled to do in the current winless run. In the draw with Nashville, NYCFC kept the Supporters Shield leaders scoreless with very solid defending, especially from Thiago Martins, who seems back to his usual self after his injury last month.
The biggest negative still is the lack of goal scoring — Nico Fernández Mercau can’t do it all alone. Hannes Wolf’s been injured for a bit now, Bénie Traoré is struggling, and Luighi has slowed down a bit after scoring in back-to-back games in mid August.
TBM: Have the past few games changed your opinion on NYC moving up in the standings or should I just expect to see them in 7th place two months from now?
Not too much.
I think they are playing better than they were a month ago, but they desperately need Alonso Martínez back. It’s going to take some time for him to get back into the swing of things, but if he can pick up where he left off the past two seasons, NYCFC are fully capable of getting a top-five spot in the Eastern Conference.
Still, it’s unfair to expect Martínez to be the player he was after tearing his ACL. Designated player Bénie Traoré simply has to step up and help ease the scoring burden off Nico Fernández Mercau.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc
I mentioned Alonso Martínez and Aiden O’Neill returning, but the rest of the injury list remains the same: starters Talles Magno, Maxi Moralez, Keaton Parks, and Kai Trewin are out. I’m not sure how much NYCFC will rest given they play in Utah on Saturday, but I’m going to predict a full strength lineup.
4-2-3-1: Freese; O’Toole, Raul Gustavo, Thiago Martins, Gray; Perea, Sands; Traoré, Fernández Mercau, Ojeda; Luighi
Aiden O’Neill could start but I don’t think he will, given he’s coming off an injury. Nico Cavallo, Max Murray, Malachi Jones, and Mitja Ilenič are also subs that I could see starting if NYCFC rotates. I think NYCFC will snap the winless run with a 2-1 win.
