Hartford Athletic grabbed a massive three points in Brooklyn on Saturday, vaulting them from the bottom to the top of Group 5 in USL Cup competition. A superb team defensive effort backed up second-half goals from Samuel Careaga and Michee Ngalina as the Latics picked up another clean sheet - their seventh in all competitions.

With all that said, here are three thoughts after the Latics' Saturday night win.

1 - Smash and grab?

Consider the following numbers. Over two games in Brooklyn this season, Hartford Athletic have been outshot 41-14.

Shots on target? Brooklyn had the edge 16-4.

Shots inside the box? 21-6 in favor of Brooklyn.

Touches in the opposition box? Brooklyn again on top, 63-29. Over the two games, Brooklyn also had more than two-thirds of the ball, and had more than half of their possession in Hartford’s half of the pitch.

Given all that, you would be forgiven if, on being told that one team had won those two games by a combined score of 4-1, you assumed it was Brooklyn that had taken all six points.

Obviously, the reverse is true. But how?

A slightly deeper dive on some of the numbers tells part of the story. Across those two games, Brooklyn also had an edge in expected goals, 3.48-2.31. Even by the crude measure of expected goals per shot, it’s easy to see one trend emerge, as Hartford generated 0.165 expected goals per shot, while Brooklyn’s barrage left them at a mere 0.085.

And looking at specific shots drives the point home even further: only three of Brooklyn’s 41 shots had an expected goals of better than 0.20, whereas Hartford had four such attempts on, as was already established, barely one-third the number of total shots.

Hartford had five big chances across the two games, converting four into goals. Brooklyn had two – and none in the most recent fixture – converting just one.

On Saturday, this disparity was quite stark, as Hartford had three of the four best chances in the game, as measured by expected goals. If you frame it that way – that one team produced the overwhelming majority of the high-quality chances – the scoreline seems rather less surprising.

And Hartford’s goals pass the eye test, too. On Saturday, Samuel Careaga’s opener was extremely well taken. After a slight error in the Brooklyn midfield, Barry Coffey was quick to get on the ball and slide it to Careaga, who was already in the process of splitting two defenders. A burst of pace later, and the Argentine easily fired the ball past Jackson Lee. It was the kind of quick goal that Hartford thrived on last season, and the deadly efficiency in attack that they have been desperately searching for this season.

The second was even better.

Michee Ngalina’s rocket from a difficult angle left Jackson Lee wondering where the ball had gone, and then standing in disbelief when he discovered it in the back of his own net. It’s the type of strike that made Ngalina one of the most exciting young players in the USL Championship during his time with Colorado Springs, and a firm reminder that while he has been struggling for goals so far this season, he possesses an ability that few other strikers do. 

Now, you can’t let the opposition tee off on your goal. Hartford had 13 blocks across the two games against Brooklyn, and Antony Siaha has had to make 15 saves. The Latics simply have to do a better job of limiting those opportunities.

But at the same time, if the quality of chance you’re generating in the attacking third is as good as it was on Saturday? You’re going to be in a good position to win a lot of games.

2 - Victory marred by more injuries

Hartford had only just about recovered from one injury crisis; Baboucarr Njie returning to the gameday squad was the last piece of that puzzle, when another one seems to have emerged. Both Matt Real and Adewale Obalola went down with noncontact injuries on Saturday, a double blow to a squad that looked like it might finally have everyone healthy and available.

Real’s injury has to be especially frustrating for the player, who had just returned from a calf injury that had cost him two games already this season. The severity of the injury is unclear at this point, but even a mild injury would likely cost him another two or three weeks, and a more severe one could mean he isn’t available until mid-July. 

The good news, at least as far as the squad is concerned, is that while when Real went down before, Hartford had essentially no cover at left back, with forward Sadat Anaku and center back TJ Presthus filling in. The story is much different now.

Baboucarr Njie was available on the bench to substitute in and is probably in line for a start against Tulsa. He has over 130 Championship appearances, primarily on the left-hand side.

And of course, Hartford are ready to welcome star left back Emmanuel Samadia back to the squad as well, as the Sierra Leone international targets a full return later this month.

Obalola’s injury looked much more serious, with the player unable to walk off the field under his own power and then being stretchered into the locker room. Obviously, sometimes things look worse than they are. Real’s earlier injury is a case in point, where an achilles injury was initially feared, but it’s never a good sign when a player needs to be carried off the pitch.

If the forward has to miss substantial time, it will further stress a squad that is struggling to find quite the right combination up front to generate consistent scoring. Sadat Anaku will likely be the biggest beneficiary, at least initially, but it may also open the door for Segun to get more minutes as Brendan Burke and his staff try to figure out exactly what they have with the teenager.

It’s also possible that if Obalola is unavailable for an extended period, or in the worst-case scenario has to miss the remainder of the season, Hartford will go to market for a replacement, with a loan from an MLS club being by far the most likely avenue.

As for why these injuries happened, it’s hard to say. It’s difficult at this point to pin either one on the club’s abbreviated preseason preparations, although the amount of minutes they’ve had to play on low-quality turf probably hasn’t helped.

It may well be that this is just one (two) of those things that happen when you’re pushing the body to its limits. Whatever the reasons, it’s something to keep an eye on, as Brendan Burke will once again be working with a slightly-depleted squad for the foreseeable future.

3 - Group 5 is wide open

After Hartford’s penalty shoot-out loss to RIFC in the opening round of USL Cup fixtures, the Latics were looking up the mountain. Just one point from that game left them trailing not just RIFC, but also Brooklyn (who beat NY Cosmos) and Westchester (who pipped Hearts of Pine on penalties).

Everything went Hartford’s way over the weekend. The Latics took care of their own business, but Hearts also downed RIFC 2-1, and Cosmos pipped Westchester at the death to take all three points there. As a result, Hearts sit top of the group, but Hartford are level on points, and trail only by virtue of Hearts having scored more goals (the relevant tiebreaker in the USL Cup, as the two sides will not play each other in this campaign.

So Hartford doesn’t quite control its own destiny here. If both teams win out, and Hartford don’t outscore Hearts by at least two goals over the two remaining games, Hearts will advance as group winners, and the Latics will have to hope that they can once again sneak into the knockout rounds as a wildcard team; a more difficult proposition this time as there will only be one such bonus advancement rather than the two that were on offer in 2025.

So Hartford has work to do, but if it needs goals, the opportunity in front of them is as good as it could be in Group 5. The Latics remaining games are against NY Cosmos and Westchester SC, both of whom have conceded five goals in their first two USL Cup games. The two clubs also have two of the leakiest defences in the entirety of USL League One. NY Cosmos are allowing the most goals per game in that league and Westchester are barely better, allowing the fifth-most goals on a per-game basis.

Both teams can score — they sit in the top five in goals scored per game – so Hartford will definitely have its work cut out to get the results needed, but the entire narrative of Group 5 changed over the weekend, and Hartford hit the halfway mark of the group stage in an excellent position.