Four games into the Round of 32 and the drama could not be higher...and the quality of soccer honestly can't get much lower.
We'll get into the specifics, but three of the four teams that have lost in this round have done so basically of their own accord, with highly questionable coaching decisions and/or tactics in my opinion. The number of teams, especially from Europe, reacting to a low block like they've never seen it before is astounding.
But in four games we've had two penalty shootouts and two stoppage time regulation winners so the tournament is doing something right even if we have to slog through a lot of not good to get there.
MOROCCO 1 (3), NETHERLANDS 1 (2)
The bad decision in this game was whatever the Netherlands lined up with playing four centerbacks and a weird five-man backline, possibly in an effort to take away some of the width Morocco can generate, especially when right back Achraf Hakimi gets involved.
But the Netherlands mostly sat back and defended in this one, eventually taking the lead via Route 1 and Cody Gakpo's breakthrough in the 72nd minute in a very emotional moment for the Dutch striker with recent family news. But the Dutch generated just 0.24 xG on 2-of-6 shooting and 30% possession, which I can not comprehend from Top 10 team in the world.
Now the Dutch strategy nearly worked until stoppage time when Issa Diop headed home in incredibly difficult fashion, falling away from the ball, right under the nose of Virgil van Dijk, and then they probably should have lost in extra time if not for a wonder save by Bart Verbruggen's toe on Soufiane Rahimi in the 97th minute from about 10 yards out. That chance was about half of Morocco's 1.4 xG generated but they did get five big chances from their 5-of-11 attacking performance and had 500 more completed passes than the Dutch, truly out total footballing the masters.
In the penalty shootout the left post (keeper's right) was pinged multiple times (it does make a sound like an NHL goal), Verbruggen actually made the initial stop on the second Morocco penalty only for the ball to trickle in underneath him, Yassine Bounou stonewalled the Dutch's fifth attempt by standing up Crysencio Summerville, all before Ismael Saibari slotted home the winning spot kick for a delirious Atlas Lions fanbase.
PARAGUAY 1 (4), GERMANY 1 (3)
The first massive upset of the day took place in the friendly confines of Gillette Boston Stadium, so naturally TBM's Sam Lattof has the full recap.
Germany clearly learned nothing from their previous game against Ecuador and absolutely did not watch the USMNT's 4-1 dismantling of this Paraguay side because if they did they would have figured out the way to beat a low block is to run it off the field and not lump 50 crosses into the box and hope for headers.
Now, Paraguay's opener was a thing of beauty as Atlanta Untied teammates Miguel Almiron and Matias Galaraza combined down the right hand side after a recycled corner with the latter putting in a pinpoint cross to Julio Enciso to powerfully head into a wide open half net right before halftime.

Germany did restore parity ten minutes after the midway point through Kai Havertz's glancing header in the 54th, but aside from a couple of additional headed chances from the Arsenal star man, one in regulation and one in extra time, Germany had no answers for the Paraguayan low block.
But for the majority of the day, Germany's dominance in possession at a staggering 75% led to a 6-for-21 shooting performance that generated about 1.50 xG - about 0.07 per shot with only two big chances created (Paraguay had three!), which is just not good enough at this level. Then the stutter step penalties began and let's just say the soccer gods were not going to allow such nonsense at my own club stadium.
The President of Paraguay signed a Paraguayan government decree declaring a national holiday on Tuesday, June 30, to celebrate Paraguay’s national team beating Germany and advancing to the round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup 🇵🇾
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) June 30, 2026
This is the World Cup.
(📸 @santipenapy) pic.twitter.com/huRRoVXCmN
Onto the last talking point from this one - VAR chalking off Jonathan Tah's extra time goal for a Waldemar Anton screen on keeper Orlando Gill. This is an incredibly easy overturn, Anton is faceguarding the keeper in a clear action to hinder the keepers movement, and it should be an indirect free kick for obstruction the second the ball is put into play every single time.
This is the World Cup, not the 25/26 EPL and in case you're wondering, yes the overcorrection next year in England is going to be swift and brutal and I can't wait to see Arsenal in the Conference League as penance.
second-half
I can not sum up my disappointment in Japan's second-half performance other than to say that they had it and let it get away.
Brazil were let back into the match after a dismal first half performance that saw the Selecao down at the break thanks to Kaishu Sano's long range strike at the half hour mark. Despite a 70-30 edge in possession, chances in the first half were relatively even with Brazil a meager 0.40 xG number to Japan's 0.30 tally.
Then Japan, for some reason, tried to pack it in, and that just did not work and only allowed Brazil to basically have free rein in the Blue Samurai's half as they struggled to even maintain possession. Brazil had been knocking on the door with a goalline scramble moments before, but equalized thanks to Casemiro's towering back-post header in the 56th.
Japan's New Jersey-born keeper Zion Suzuki did what he could to keep the scoreline level with four saves on the night, but football is especially cruel. Japan's Ao Tanaka was caught in possession after a takeaway at the top of his box, and Bruno Guimaraes was able to slip in Gabriel Martinelli in the fifth minute of stoppage to and his far post shot beat the fingertips of Suzuki and the post to see Brazil into the Round of 16.
The only team that doesn’t think Japan can play with these teams is Japan
— Zealand (@theoldzealand) June 29, 2026
This is the best analysis I've seen of Japan's decision-making and play in the second half. They were absolutely the better team in the first half and just decided to start doing the opposite of everything they had been doing in that brilliant forty five minute period.
The Blue Samurai's wait for their first knockout win goes on for at least another four years.
first-time
Sneaking in Sunday's game here, and this one was pretty much all Canada and was mostly a matter of when they would get their goal.
Credit to South Africa on a wonderful tournament and keeper Ronwen Williams who put up two spectacular games against Canada and South Korea in net and had five saves in this one.
But if there was anyone who deserved this moment for Canada, it was their captain Stephen Eustaquio who gathered a half clearance and on the half volley unleashed a stunning winner in the second minute of stoppage time.
Stat that doesn’t feel real – today’s match between Canada and South Africa is just third knockout match in the history of the men’s World Cup to be contested by teams outside of Europe/South America and the first not to feature teams from those regions or the US
— Max (@MaxRadwan) June 28, 2026
Still a lot of history in this matchup as it was a guaranteed first-time, knockout winner and just the third time a knockout match was played without a team from Europe or South America (the previous two involving the USMNT, Australia-Egypt will be the fourth).
Statistically,a high-water Canada was far from dominant, allowing South Africa to have nearly 60% possesssion. But attacking wise Bafana Bafana were nearly non-existent with just 0.14 xG on 1-of-6 shooting compared to Canada's 1.38 xG mark on 7-of-12 shooting.
Either way this a deserved win and a high-water mark for Canadian soccer who I think can go out and give Morocco a game in a week or so in a match that might be a little more open for everyone to counter each other.
UPCOMING MATCHES
It's a Canada vs Morocco showdown in the Round of 16 🇨🇦🇲🇦 pic.twitter.com/p6M0xOk2Bu
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 30, 2026
One Round of 16 matchup is set as Canada and Morocco will play on July 4 in Houston, TX. Paraguay awaits the winner of France-Sweden on the same day in Philadelphia. Finally, Brazil will play the Norway-Ivory Coast winner on July 5 from not MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
