One thing I’ve learned, being a fan of Major League Soccer, about the beginning of the MLS season is that, usually, it’s not a good idea to “over-index” on the first few games.

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Teams change over time and results vary. Oftentimes, statistical outliers regress to the mean. This is to say, things may look really great (or really terrible) in March, but by June will have leveled off to a nice, crisp medium.

Another thing I’ve learned, however, being a fan of the New England Revolution, is that it’s sometimes a very good idea to “over-index” on the first few games. While statistically, most teams inhabit a (sort of) middle area on a bell curve, there still need to be teams at tethering down either end.

Sometimes good teams get better, and sometimes bad teams get worse. This is to say things may look really terrible (for example) in March, but by June may have exploded to a smoldering, ash-covered even more terrible.

Around this time of year we hear a lot of “it’s too early to judge” or “it’s a long season”, or “still plenty of time to turn things around”. And in most cases, that’s good advice.

But it doesn’t mean that we should ignore the early results and trends. If you see small yellow birds dropping out of the sky near the entrance to the local mine, it’s unhelpful to say “it’s still early in the coal-mining-league season”.

Tweety does not approve of this metaphor

While it’s maybe unfair to compare some of the Revs early season struggles to the proverbial canary, there are some warning signs brewing in the stats.

Preseason is over. The New England Revolution have completed their transition from theoretical to actual.

Now that we have some real games and real data to look at, here are some stats that I’m keeping an eye on.

3.7 xGA Through 4 Games

Let’s start out on a positive and highlight a positive change since last season.

The New England Revolution were an atrociously bad defense in 2024. They conceded a whopping 74 goals last season, which would have easily been worst in the league if not for a record breaking effort by San Jose’s 78 goals-against. The record before last season was 75 GA, set by FC Cincinnati in 2019.

The Revs did, however, manage to take the prize in 2024 for “Worst xGA”, allowing chances worth 62.8 expected goals. Next highest went to CF Montreal at 58.7xGA.

Suffice to say, the Revs didn’t do a whole lot of “stopping the other team from scoring” last season.

Where CF Montreal and San Jose looked to improve its team’s defensive fortunes by bringing in new leadership, the Revs opted to change the personnel on the pitch. New England sent away six of its 11 defenders from 2024 and brought in six new faces to boost their fortunes.

And, arguably, it has worked.

New England has conceded just 3.7 expected-goals-allowed (though 5 actual goals-allowed) in 4 games. That’s a major improvement over 2024.

In fact, in order to find a four-game stretch with a lower xGA, you’d have to go all the way back to September 2nd, 2023.

Clearly, there has been an improvement in terms of the quality of chances New England is conceding so far this year, as compared to last.

5 Shots on target / 0.06 xG per shot / 1.7 total xG

Well it couldn’t all be sunshine and rainbows, now could it?

All 3 stats listed in the section header (and most other offense-related stats) is a category in which the Revs are dead last in MLS. Now, New England has played one fewer game than many MLS sides as it opted for a bye during the international window.

Fear not, they still retain fewest shots-on-target, and lowest xG when normalizing to a per-90 basis. For all the progress they’ve made on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve regressed mightily in the attacking-department.

Here’s a similar plot to the xGA chart above, except this time it shows 2023 and 2024 expected-goals-FOR on a 4 game rolling basis (with this year’s performance benchmark, again, in green).

While much of 2024 (blue line) hovered around or under four goals (equivalent to 1xG per match), there was no four-game stretch where the Revs produced as low an xG output as they have so far this year.

In fact, I looked to find a lower four-game xG total in past Revs seasons and had to stop once I got far enough back that FBRef didn’t include xG in their standard match stats. I made it to 2017.

3.1% Of Touches Taken Within Attacking Penalty Area

It’s clear that the attack has been lacking so far this season but this season’s poor performance isn’t coming from nowhere. The Revs had a league worst 36.8 xG last season. As I broke down in my 2024 post-mortem article, part of those offensive struggles were due to an inability to find possession in dangerous parts of the field.

The Revs ended 2024 with the sixth fewest touches in their attacking penalty area in MLS. That seems to be a continuing trend in 2025.

In fact, in both 2024 and 2025 (thus far) New England is taking 3.1 percent of touches in the attacking PA. That was good for third lowest in 2024, but is currently more middle-of-the-pack (at 10th lowest) in 2025.

What’s interesting to note about the above possession comparison, the Revs have appeared to shift their zones of possession further into the attack. Fewer touches in their defensive 1/3, and more in the middle and attacking 1/3s.

It hasn’t, however, translated to more possession in the penalty area. Once the Revs transition the ball into the attack, they struggle to move it into the box.

The above chart shows the percentage of attacking 1/3 touches that take place within the penalty area. The Revs 12.97% is sixth from the bottom. I’ve shown their 2024 percentage (14.35%) as well, as a reference.

The touches they are getting within the box, aren’t leading to good chances, either. The Revolution’s passes into the penalty area have tended to be into wider areas of the penalty area, away from the highest percentage shooting locations.

15.3 Fouls Drawn per 90

We don’t need to go too deeply into this one, but it does feel perhaps notable that the Revs have suffered the most fouls in MLS on a per 90 basis.

It may have something to do with the way they play as we saw above, they’re taking more of their possession in the middle 1/3 where fouls are more common.

It may also, however, have something to do with a tactical decision from their opponents. Carles Gil is the most fouled player in MLS at 15 fouls-drawn. That’s in one less game than many other players, mind you.

I’m certainly not suggesting anything nefarious here other than it would seem to be a good idea to apply pressure to New England’s best player. The Revs haven’t shown any other tried-and-true methods of creating dangerous moments. It could be as simple as - ‘stifling Gil derails the Revs whole attack’. So far that seems true, and it would seem that opponents are aware.

64% Decrease in average xG from 1st to 2nd Half

With most of the stats mentioned in this article, the point isn’t “here’s what we know about this team”. It’s more “I want to highlight some early trends that could serve as warning signs for the future”.

The biggest warning sign, to me, has to do with comparing 1st half to 2nd half performances. While the Revs haven’t generated much going forward, they have managed to keep games close. Well… for a while at least.

Then the 2nd half starts.

New England’s second half performances have yielded an average of 0.105 xG. They average 0.5 shots-on-target in 2nd halves so far. Yes, you read that correctly. 0.5 shots-on-target.

Worth noting, the Revs have lost three of their four games so at some point in the second half in all of those games, they were trailing. It’s really hard to come back from a deficit in the second half if you can’t consistently take at least one of your shots on target.

Meanwhile, their opponents are showing average increases to xG, Shots, Shots-on-Target, and Shots-Within-the-Penalty-Area. They grow into the game.

This paints a picture of a Revs team that is gritty but predictable in the first half but who makes no adjustments in the 2nd. They either don’t make tactical changes or can’t execute on those changes to break down their opponents, even when trailing.

With the high amount of roster turnover in the offseason, fans will hope that it’s the former.

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