New England Revolution Q2 Analyst Report
New England Revolution Q2 Analyst Report
The Revolution recently completed a successful second quarter of the season despite a narrow miss to the downside on their points target...
Overview
After a self-defined — by Caleb Porter — poor first quarter of the MLS season in which the Revs captured just four points from eight games they bounced back with four wins in the second quarter. The team garnered 12 points in the quarter which Porter reported was a narrow miss on his 13-point target.
Despite the narrow miss, the Revs were above the 1.25 points per game playoff line target and showed a 200% improvement in Q2 from Q1 in terms of total points earned.
The improved results were also a 20% year-over-year improvement from the second quarter of 2023. Despite the uptick in points for the quarter, the Revs will begin the all-important third quarter of the season still sitting in last place in the Eastern Conference and four points outside the playoffs.
Analyst note: Both Q1 and Q2 were eight matches, Q3 and Q4 will be nine match quarters.
Performance
The Revs 10 goals scored in Q2 were double the amount scored in Q1. Goals allowed were relatively flat between the quarters as they allowed 14 in Q1 and 15 in Q2. It should be noted that the first game of the second quarter was against Inter Miami that saw Miami score 4 goals. The other seven games saw only 11 goals conceded.
Despite the increase of goals scored the underlying statistics for goal scoring; shots, shots on target, corners, and expected goals all decreased in Q2 compared to Q1. Touches inside the penalty area were essentially flat quarter to quarter, though they had been trending down until the last game of Q2.
Expected goals allowed increased in Q2 up to 16.1 from 14.9 in the first quarter. However, goals allowed minus xGA was nearly flat, quarter to quarter, the -.9 mark in Q1 closely matched the -1.1 mark in Q2.
After 16 games in 2024, New England is outperforming 2023 in terms of shots, shots on target, corners, and touches in the penalty area on a per-game basis. That has not led to an increase in either expected goals or xG from open play in 2024 from 2023, the Revs are underperforming on both so far this season.
Results
The second quarter’s four wins included two at home and two on the road, home wins coming against NY Red Bulls and Vancouver at quarter’s end, and road wins versus Chicago and Nashville. Losses came against Inter Miami, Red Bulls, Philadelphia and NYCFC. Three of the four losses were at home.
The Revs were 11th in MLS in points per game during the period of their eight games in second quarter. It should be noted that not all teams played an equal number of games. The top 18 teams in the period from April 26 to June 16 are shown below, 18 representing the number of MLS teams making the playoffs.
Quarter Highlights
The team won three games in a row for the first time in 2024
Back to back home wins were recorded for the first time this season
A season high three goals were scored in the win against Vancouver to close the quarter
Allowed 1 goal or less four times
Scored multiple goals in three games
Tailwinds
Outside back, Brandon Bye is expected to return in Q3
Only one player was called up to their respective national team for the Euros and Copa America tournaments
The return of Dave Romney to the lineup in Q2 coincided with three consecutive wins, he is expected to maintain his starting position
The team has only one mid-week game in the upcoming quarter
Headwinds
The availability of forward, Tomas Chancalay, is unknown and could miss the entire quarter due to injury
Talented youngsters, Noel Buck and Esmir Bajraktarevic could depart for European-based teams during the quarter
The secondary transfer window does not open until after the 6th game of the quarter, limiting new acquisitions
No indication that underperforming players Giacomo Vrioni and Matt Polster will lose their starting positions
The quarter opens with games against Cincinnati and Columbus, considered two of the Eastern Conference’s top teams
Only four of the nine games are at home, the team has two wins from seven away games
Analysts Projections/Points per Game
Caleb Porter has set a points-per-game target of 1.66 for Q3 based on his quote stating the team is aiming for at least five wins from the nine games in the quarter.
Contributing analysts project 1.35 points per game in the 3rd quarter with a further decline in Q4 to 1.27.
Contributing analysts included; Mike Kennedy, Woody Nye, Kristoffer Valukis, Sam Minton, Thomas Pinzone
Additional Analysts Comments
“No idea why I am optimistic” -Mike Kennedy
“Need to go in positive direction, is it possible?” -Woody Nye
“I feel like the Revs are currently building momentum and might go on a small run over the summer, getting close to a playoff spot and giving fans hope. In Q4, the Revs will drop off in performance enough for it to come down to decision Day and the Revs will control their destiny to claim the last playoff spot, only to lose 6-1 in Miami, even though Messi, Suarez and Alba were being rested ahead of the playoffs.” -Kristoffer Valukis
Xavier Arreaga Talks About His Dribbling Abilities
Rating
Recent results have been promising and suggest a turnaround is possible for the Revs. A strong finish to Q2 leaves playoff qualification as a possibility. Questions as to how sustainable current form is given the narrow margins of victory and the quality of opponents wins were achieved against.
Further caution is necessary as well given the weakness of several underlying statistics, possible continued selection of underperforming players and a challenging schedule through Q3.
The team looked like a strong sell after Q1 and that has been upgraded to a Hold rating for Q2 given an equal balance of optimism and pessimism going into the next nine games.
