Five Thoughts on CONCACAF's 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw
Having already tackled the USMNT, lets take a look at the rest of the region's chances at making the knockout stages.
When I tackled the USA draw over the weekend, and yes I know I promised this post to happen a few days ago, I realized an interesting conundrum about expectations that’s going to be evolving with the expanding tournament.
With 48 teams and a 32-team knockout bracket, judging groups is a lot more interesting and in a lot of ways, harder. Yes for the most part it’s still the top two that advance, along with now four third place teams, but the overall depth and danger within the groups is much reduced now.
There’s two reasons for this.
First the change to purely seeded pots rather than regional draws that started I think for the 2018 World Cup. There’s still some teams that can get jostled around to avoid continental matchups in the group stage but for the most part groups are going to be far more balanced. I mean, Sports Illustrated already did the math and I’m not going to lie, unless you have a minnow in your group, all of these really feel the same.
Yes the France-Norway (Group I) and England-Croatia (Group L) groups seem harder and certainly more intriguing, but any group with multiple European teams likely is going to be difficult. Also increasingly rare to have a team like Norway, ranked one spot ahead of Panama at 29th in the world, as a dangerous Pot 3 team cause they may have the best striker in the world but haven’t been internationally relevant for two decades.
Second, I think the gap between Pot 1 and Pot 2 teams has gotten wider. It used to be that you could argue a significant number of Pot 2 teams were legit semifinal contenders. Now, surely Croatia and Morocco fit the bill given their recent performances but beyond that…you have a lot of good not great teams like Colombia and Uruguay from South America and maybe a team like Switzerland who quietly dominated a pretty good qualifying group. South Korea, Japan, and even Australia out of Asia are always solid but never feel dominant or overwhelming as opponents though on their best days they can run you out of the park.
But the reason why I think the logic and analysis is evolving, is because we have to re-adjust goals with the expanded tournament. Judging the USA (and Mexico/Canada) as hosts is going to be a lot different than say next year where maybe a Round of 32 appearance could be a success.
Anyway, I’m going to try and take a few other factors into account for the remaining CONCACAF teams as we gauge just how likely they are to get out of their groups and/or make it to the Round of 16. I still think that’s the baseline for which the USA and Mexico should be judged on because those two nations regularly get to that stage.
But I’m not as confident in the rest of the region’s chances like I am in the USA right now…
MEXICO - Group A (South Korea, South Africa, UEFA D)
Okay El Tri, I think you have a tricky one here. With the potential of Czech Republic, Denmark, or Ireland out of that UEFA Playoff bracket I still think Mexico is going to get out of this group. But I do think this could be a group that gets three teams into the knockouts. Someone winning this group on five points or two teams finishing second/third tied on four points seems very plausible.
Mexico hasn’t won a game since beating the USA in the Gold Cup Final. There were draws to both Japan and South Korea back in September, so El Tri like the U.S. will face a recent friendly opponent.
But Mexico has not looked great in recent months, losing 0-4 to Colombia, dropping a game to Paraguay, and additional draws to Ecuador and Uruguay. I could easily see this group getting weird, like four or five games out of six being draws weird, especially if the worst team is South Africa who got through Nigeria and a forfeit for an ineligible player in qualifying to get here.
I think Mexico should advance, but I don’t have the confidence like I have in the USA where I think the Americans are going to win their group. El Tri being one of the third place qualifiers I think is in play here unless they drastically turn around their form in the run up to the tournament. Also Mexico-South Africa kicking off another World Cup like they did in 2010, pretty cool. Ireland would make this the most fun group ever of all time.
Canada - Group B (Switzerland, Qatar, UEFA A)
There almost has to be two previews here. One with Italy, and one without. With Italy, Canada also could very well be in third place qualifier territory. Switzerland isn’t one of those overwhelmingly dominant teams, Canada on a good day can beat them, but I would be very shocked to see a team that consistent not get out of the group.
But, if the Italians get their act together, and actually show up next summer, which is a lot I know…the Azzurri being the group favorites would not be ridiculous. Qatar lost all three games as hosts four years ago and I expect something similar. They’re good enough not get blown out but any result they get would be an upset.
I think Canada gets through this group in the Top 2 for sure if Italy isn’t involved, and then are a strong candidate for being a third place team if good Italy shows up. The goal as always though is chaos so we’re rooting for Bosnia and Herzegovina for the Esmir vs Tajon matchup so New England can ruin everything one way or another. Jesse Marsch and the Canucks getting a knockout win would be a pretty big deal and I think they’ve got a shot but depending on how the group plays out it just might be a lot harder if they’re playing a top seed as a third place side.
Panama - Group L (England, Croatia, Ghana)
I think the Canaleros might be in trouble.
Back-to-back European runners up England, back-to-back world semifinalists Croatia, and known USMNT nemesis Ghana is just brutal. Whichever group pulled Croatia out of Pot 2 was likely going to have a bad time and Panama drew the short straw.
Now the Black Stars are not the squad they were a decade or so ago where they regularly were an AFCON semifinalist. The only real chance either Panama or Ghana has is to beat the other and then get a result against a Top 10 team in the world. I think it’s unlikely three points will be good enough as a third place finisher and if either England or Croatia start running up the score (and they should cause it could matter for first), it’s about as daunting a task as there is in this tournament.
Panama has a chance to get their first ever World Cup point, and maybe even victory, but that’s the best case scenario the Canaleros should be hoping for I’m afraid.
Curacao - Group E (Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast)
It could be worse for Curacao, we’ll get to that scenario, but it was always going to be a near impossible assignment out of Pot 4. Clearly Germany are the favorites here but I could see either Ecuador or the Ivorians being the second place team. Curacao was always going to be a long shot to make the knockouts but game planning for drastically different teams compounds that issue.
Ecuador didn’t allow a ton of goals in qualifying but didn’t score a lot either. Ivory Coast scored a ton of goals, allowed zero, and aside from a 0-0 draw at Kenya were nearly flawless in their qualifying group but only won over Gabon by a point.
Both extremes are going to be difficult for Curacao to get results against but it’s unlikely they’re going to win a shootout with anyone on offense. A low scoring draw against Ecuador might be their best chance at a result but any point they get would be a great accomplishment.
Haiti - Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Scotland)
This is I think objectively a worse situation for Haiti than the one above, but I don’t see a scenario where Les Grenadiers can get a point here. Haiti making it to this stage is a tremendous accomplishment but I can’t think of a worse draw. Haiti getting a few goals off counters with their attacking potential is something I am rooting for and can certainly happen, but overall even a result against a team of Scotland’s quality seems unlikely.
Still, this is a great experience for Haiti and highlights the benefit of the expanded tournament…there’s just going to be some growing pains for the actual Pot 4 teams that aren’t coming in via playoffs.
BONUS INTER FEDERATION PLAYOFFS
Path 2: Suriname vs Bolivia; Winner vs Iraq (Group I- FRA/NOR/SEN)
Path 1: Jamaica vs New Calendonia; Winner vs DR Congo (Group K - POR/COL/UZB)
Okay, easy one out of the way. Path 2 is extremely screwed. Maybe Iraq could get a result against Senegal but they would be a low end spoiler at best in Group I. Considering Suriname or Bolivia have to play twice just to make the field, they would definitely be in we’re just happy to be here territory.
Now Path 1 on the other hand, Jamaica if they get their act together, there’s a way into the knockouts for them. Uzbekistan is a debutant side so that’s as winnable a Pot 3 game as you’re going to get. Do I think it’s impossible for Jamaica to get a draw somewhere else, no…but a certain former Husky is going to have to stand on his head in net and Andre Blake hasn’t been getting a lot of help lately. Portugal and Colombia are good, but I think significantly more realistic to get results from than England or Croatia.
CONCACAF OVERVIEW
I think the host countries all should make it out of their groups, but after that, it’s hard to say just how far everyone could (or should) go in the knockouts. Mexico struggles of late makes me think they could be one and done in the Round of 32 regardless of matchup and Canada is absolutely going to be a lively opponent right up until they’re eliminated.
Knockout matchups are a lot harder to predict now with the third place teams factored in, especially if Mexico and Canada are less likely to win their groups than I think the USA is. I still think as home teams, the Round of 16 should be the minimum for the three hosts even with a strong chance someone runs into a top contender in the Ro32.
The USA still has the best chance at a quarterfinal, I’ll put Canada second cause I can see them being a difficult team to eliminate in the knockouts and I think a Ro16 appearance would be a nice reward for how far they’ve come this decade. Mexico really needs a strong spring in the warm up phase prior to the World Cup or they could be looking at another knockout failure or worse, group elimination.
The rest of the region was already a long shot to make any noise in the tournament, and it’s strange to give Jamaica who’s not even in the tournament field yet the best chance but the draw was rather unkind to the rest of CONCACAF.