2025 Gold Cup Knockout Rounds Primer, TV Schedule: Mexico, USA, Canada
Is Mexico on the path to more regional hardware and who in CONCACAF can stop them?
The quarterfinals for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup are set to begin with a doubleheader featuring Mexico and Panama on Saturday, while the United States and Canada will play on Sunday.
There were no surprises in the four group winners, and outside of upstart Guatemala upsetting Jamaica en route to a spot in the knockouts, it was a fairly chalk group phase. But the knockouts are where chaos truly strives and each of the quarterfinal matchups provides a unique intrigue for a potential upset.
TV SCHEDULE
Quarterfinals
Saturday, June 28
QF3: Panama vs. Honduras - State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ, 7:15 p.m.
FS1, Univision, TUDN
QF2: Mexico vs Saudi Arabia - State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ, 10:15 p.m.
FS1, Univision, TUDN
Sunday, June 29
QF4: Canada vs. Guatemala - U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN, 4 p.m.
FS1, Univision, TUDN
QF1: USA vs. Costa Rica - U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN, 7 p.m.
FOX, Univision, TUDN
Semifinals
Wednesday, July 2
QF1 vs. QF4 - Energizer Park, St. Louis, MO, 7 p.m.
FS1, Univision, TUDN
QF2 vs. QF3 - Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA, 10 p.m.
FS1, Univision, TUDN
Final
Sunday, July 6
SF1 vs. SF2 - NRG Stadium, Houston, TX, 7 p.m.
FOX, Univision, TUDN
QUARTERFINALS OVERVIEW
Panama vs Honduras
Panama is the forgotten member of the CONCACAF elite, the other top four team that isn’t in North America. Los Canaleros are as steady as they come, but when that offense starts clicking, they become a handful real quick. Ismael Diaz and Tomas Rodriguez have a combined eight goals, with Diaz’s tournament leading five through the group stage thanks to a hat trick against Jamaica. If the attack is going to be this potent, Panama has a tremendous chance to end North American dominance at the Gold Cup.
How can Honduras pull off the upset? Don’t get overwhelmed. Honduras’ rout in their group opener against Canada might have been buoyed by pure hate and disrespect but Los Catrachos endured and won their next two games. They were not overwhelmingly dominant using stoppage time goals to secure their wins and let Curacao hang around because of an own goal.
But against a team like Panama, you have to match their temperament and patience, knowing Honduras can score late they might be able to steal the game at the end of regulation/extra time or force penalties. But sometimes you run into a wagon and if that’s the case, Honduras I think had a good tournament and will be in good form for WCQ in the fall.
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia
If there is one critique I have with Mexico is that they were overly reliant on set pieces to score goals in the group stage. Cesar Montes and Edson Alvarez being on heaters inside the box is great, but more goals from the run of play with Raul Jimenez would really boost Mexico’s chances next summer of a deep World Cup run on home soil. However, the matchup they get against Saudi Arabia is interesting cause bunker ball might be back on the menu. And a set piece goal is a great way to open the game up.
How can Saudi Arabia pull off the upset? They have to trust their offense and get an opener, probably on a counter. The Green Falcons advanced with just two goals scored in the group stage, lowest of any of the remaining eight teams. Yes, this is a defensive-minded outfit regardless of the day, but a 1-for-3 shooting performance like they had against the USMNT in group play isn’t going to get it done against Mexico. I don’t think the Saudis can play for extra time, they need to get a lead before they park the bus.
Canada vs Guatemala
Canada started off with a tremendous performance against Honduras that it made the rest of their group stage seem kind of flat. Yes not putting away Curacao and giving up a stoppage time equalizer is not the best, but getting into an almost literal bar fight with El Salvador for the first 45 minutes is highly ill advised even if the Canucks ended up with a two man power play for the second half.
Tajon Buchanan, Jonathan David, and Nathan Saliba have been providing more than enough offense to get Canada into a final but Canada needs to stay on the front foot and continue to generate quality chances at goal. They didn’t do that for long stretches against Curacao and El Salvador and it showed. If you do that in a semifinal, you’re going to lose.
How can Guatemala pull off the upset? Relax. I think Los Chapines got quietly overwhelmed by Panama in their group game, and I understand completely, Panama is the best team in that group for a reason. But in the other two games, Guatemala were spending a lot of time dictating play and Oscar Santis has been one of the lowkey best players in the entire tournament as far as I’m concerned.
If Canada comes out with their best, they’re going to score goals, plural, but Guatemala played really well this year with competitive results against Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Guyana and a friendly against Honduras. Yes Canada would be the biggest win for them in recent memory but not improbable given the way the Canucks played their final two games.
United States vs Costa Rica
I’m not going to lie I did not think the USMNT would sweep the group stage with three wins. No, I wouldn’t call every win overly impressive but when you have the expectations of playing a mostly inexperienced “B” squad, the U.S. should feel very confident going into this match.
Costa Rica however is a very dangerous opponent and probably the best runner up from the group phase. If Haiti can capitalize on the USA screwing around in their own half, better believe the Ticos will too. This is a game where the U.S. absolutely needs more out of the supporting cast — center mids like Luca de la Torre and wingers like Diego Luna — to really open up the game for Patrick Agyemang and Malik Tillman in the middle.
How can Costa Rica pull off the upset? Play like you did in the first two games. The anti-soccer against Mexico in a game that didn’t mean anything as far as advancement was a choice, but the other two games were open and fun and had a lot of goals. Getting into an up-and-down, back-and-forth shootout style game with the U.S. is not a bad idea with how forward their fullbacks should be getting. Not having Manfred Ugalde due to yellow card accumulation suspension is a big blow, but chance creation shouldn’t be an issue for the Ticos if they want to play aggressively.
KNOCKOUT OVERVIEW
Just a real quick assessment that I think the bottom half of the bracket (the Mexico/Panama half) feels like the much harder bracket yet I think the upper half is more likely to have the upset. I know those two things seem opposites, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mexico and Panama played the best in the group stage and could be meeting a round earlier than they should.
If the USA in particular falls, that would put say a third best Canada team against fifth Costa Rica…not exactly great seeding by the playoff committee here, considering they did the pots by CONCACAF ranking which has the USA (rightly) in fourth but yet not opposite Mexico in the knockouts.
Much like I hoped for a long overdue Jamaica masterclass in the Gold Cup, which naturally went wrong, I think it’s long overdue for someone outside North America to win this thing. Assuming a Mexico-Panama semifinal, that team is the heavy favorite for me to win the whole thing, and Panama has as a great chance to pull it off despite having the hardest path.
KNOCKOUT PREDICTIONS
MEX over KSA / PAN over HON / CAN over GUA / CRC over USA
PAN over MEX / CAN over CRC
Panama over Canada