With the New England Revolution now officially eliminated from postseason contention, as opposed to just figuratively like they have been pretty much all year, it seems like a good time to take stock of the rest of the East.
Ahead of the Revs' trip to Fort Lauderdale and Chase Stadium, where they’ll play Inter Miami FC (730pm kickoff - MLS Season Pass/Apple TV+), it’s going to be a very interesting international break for the Herons.
Miami currently has a game in hand over NYCFC and could vault them for third with a point. A win would put Miami level with second-place Cincy, but still one win behind for the tiebreaker. There are really two tiers of teams in the East - the group hosting two out of three games in the first round, and the four lower seeds…with one potential in between team we’ll get to.
Sam Lattof
HIGHER SEEDS - Philly, Cincy, NYC Miami
No, the Union haven’t clinched the Shield yet, but they could with a win over NYC this weekend or the complete chaos scenarios that exist over at MLS dot com. The Revs could do the Union a solid with a result today but I’m sure Philly would want to have this thing wrapped up before a decision day game in Charlotte.
Cincy right now has the inside track for second place, and can still mathematically catch Philly but they need help. Having two games against non-playoff teams (at RBNY and vs MTL) certainly helps.
The Pigeons have a pretty brutal stretch playing at Philly then hosting Seattle on the final day. They do have a three point cushion on Charlotte and Nashville for home field though and have won seven of nine but a big 4-0 loss to Miami means they still have work to do to keep the baseball stadiums in play for soccer.
Seth Macomber
THE TWEENER - Orlando City
Okay, let’s get weird. Aside from LAFC playing twice next week during the international break (which could put them top of the West), the home games Miami and Orlando have next week are probably the most important. Miami could be without Messi and Rodrigo De Paul for a home game against Atlanta while Orlando hosts a Vancouver team that just won a fourth straight Canadian Championship and is getting healthier at the right time.
Orlando’s game in hand can wreak havoc on the East standings because it could vault them to one point behind fourth with a win or keep them one point ahead of the play in game. Miami dropping points to one or both of New England and Atlanta puts a lot of pressure on them to win their decision day game in Nashville or potentially drop out of the top four.
The reason I can’t take a full guess at the East seeds outside of first and ninth, is the Lions, there’s too much variance. Two home games against a reeling Columbus team, a healthy Whitecaps team, and then wrapping up in Toronto should be in the 4-7 point range but they likely wont have the wins to have a tiebreaker over anyone.
Jackie Contreras
THE UNDERDOGS - Charlotte, Nashville, Chicago, Columbus
The state that shall not be named picked a bad time to end a nine game winning streak losing at NYC, but the follow up loss to Montreal was especially brutal. Charlotte has been dominant at home this year, which makes losing to the Foot Clan and the Revs smash and grab job earlier very surprising. Charlotte has the wins tiebreaker to make 4th place interesting.
Nashville is another dominant home team that I think is very well suited for a three game series and that was before winning the US Open Cup. They were undone by a brutal summer stretch winning just one of seven games and playing five of those on the road, but hoisting a trophy might cure that bump in form.
Now, currently the Fire and Crew are not in the playoffs, they’re in the play-in game, no it’s not the same I don’t care what the league says…
But these two teams could not be in different form. The Crew have been hammered by injuries and have just three wins since July started. The Fire meanwhile are surging having won seven of ten and they play Toronto and the Revs to end the year while the Crew end with Orlando and RBNY.
They’re both at worst going to be in the play-in game but I would almost expect Columbus to be that road team at this point with the Fire having a decent chance to capitalize on some chaos above them and grabbing the 7th seed. Aside from Chicago and Orlando, I wouldn’t expect a lot of movement between the home/away/play-in tiers but certainly the teams within those tiers have a lot of settling amongst themselves to sort out as far as the final seeding goes.
Sam Lattof
Back to the Revs and Miami, we saw Leo Campana and Dor Turgeman come off the bench and spark and second half win over Atlanta last week. Given Campana’s familiarity on playing in Miami, it will be interesting to see not just if those two start up top but how many minutes they get. Turgeman already got the call up for Israel again and managing how many minutes he gets while flying all over the world with the Revs eliminated probably is a thing.
But Miami and Messi have similar problems, but with Argentina already having clinched the top spot in CONEMBOL qualifying, my guess is we see the superstars available for that Atlanta match.
Joining us as always is our good friend Alex Windley of her own The Heron Nest and the numerous other sites you can find her writing for. No answers for me this week so give Alex a follow for her coverage and commentary of MIA-NE.
Josh Nye
TBM: Giving up five goals to Chicago a few weeks before the playoffs seems worrying, but is the defense an actual five-alarm fire or does Miami just have an odd habit of giving up goals in bunches?
AW: I think it’s a combination of a lot of things! Miami were coming off a pretty brutal stretch of games that had them play every three days or so.
That Chicago game was the dam breaking. Defensively, there were a couple of games where they did improve (see: 4-0 win vs. NYCFC) but, there are some warning signs heading into the playoffs, particularly if Javier Mascherano doesn’t play his first choice centerback pairing - Noah Allen and Maxi Falcon.
TBM: Not sure Sergio Busquets thought his testimonial match would be on an October night against the Revs, but what is his impact/legacy in the last two and a half years and does Miami have a plan to replace him this offseason?
AW: Oh man. I’ve always loved a midfielder who was pretty cerebral and could control a midfield with, what it seems, effortless passing. Seeing him in person and covering him as a reporter has been a pleasure. He’s one of the best deep lying playmakers of his generation - of all time, really. Replacing him will be difficult, borderline impossible.
The heir to the throne was Federico Redondo, but he moved on to La Liga side Elche during the summer. There is also Academy product David Ruiz who has played there a few times, but is more of an advanced 8 by trade. Whoever follows in Busquets’ step will have big shoes to fill.
TBM: The Herons have three games left, assuming the Shield is out of reach, how high could Miami finish in the East?
AW: I think they’ll make a push for top three. The next three games are winnable, unless Miami don’t take it seriously. But, Javier Mascherano did say he wants to finish as high as possible, so a push to take the last three games will be the goal!
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.
Starting XI, from left to right:
Ustari
Alba, Noah Allen, Maxi Falcon, Ian Fray
Baltasar Rodríguez, Busquets, Yannick Bright, Tadeo Allende
Messi, Suarez
Prediction? 3-2 Miami win.
