The quickest way to move up in the Eastern Conference standings is to beat a team right next to you. So when the ninth-place New England Revolution hosts eighth-place D.C. United tonight at Gillette Stadium (7:30 PM, Apple TV), both teams will be looking to get out of the play-in game and into the actual playoff bracket.
Both teams, however, are coming off very different results. The Revs used an early Luca Langoni goal to take control against Montreal en route to a 3-0 win, while D.C. fell behind in the first half before eventually conceding a 4-0 loss at home to Dallas.
Sam Lattof
D.C, United's offense this year has essentially been Tai Baribo, who has three of D.C. United's four goals on the year for a team that has generated the second fewest xG in the league so far. The Revs aren't exactly lighting up the xG table either, they have played one fewer game as well, but while I think the Revs generating fewer but higher quality chances and finishing them...they have long stretches where the offense tends to disappear.
After scoring in the sixth minute and then Dor Turgeman hitting the post around the 15th, the Revs generated one decent chance in the next 45 minutes. The streak was broken around the hour mark with a flurry of low percentage shots that forced two saves for MTL keeper Thomas Gillier, but overall the Foot Clan outshot the Revs 19-10. Thankfully, the Revs had more shots on target (six-five), but that quantity allowed Montreal to eventually compile a 1.9 xG number thanks to good chances from Hennadii Synchuk and Matty Longstaff that forced Matt Turner into good saves.
While the Montreal game never felt in doubt, the Revs were far from dominant against a team they've put up a lot of crooked numbers against in recent years. Big shutouts of 5-0 and 4-0 against Montreal have occurred in recent years but haven't been the momentum-building wins New England has needed to propel them forward. And they need last week to be that kind of performance in the long term more than in previous years with a younger, still developing squad.
Thomas Pinzone
What worries me about this Revs team is that it had sort of done the same thing in two straight games: score early and then sit back. We have seen this play out over the last few years, usually the way it did in St. Louis when the Revs conceded three goals after their opener and despite a very good xG number in that game, it was almost all from Ilay Feingold's two early chances.
I do like the trend of the Revs adding on goals late, as we've seen in their two wins against Montreal and Cincy; the best defense is a good offense. I will continue to say it, the Revs are a countering team and are at their best when attacking in numbers, or exclusively overloading the right-hand side as they've done this year.
The set-piece goals are also really nice, as it has allowed players from across the New England formation to contribute to an absurd nine different goal scorers this year. Peyton Miller's two late goals off the bench lead the team along with Brayan Ceballos' brace against Cincy. Aside from Langoni's dominance of the team's assist charts, the Revs being able to get this many people involved is a great sign of progress and an eventual problem top teams will have to solve.
Sam Lattof
But, right now, New England has to figure out a way to put goals past D.C. United which their offensive woes aside, hasn't been easy with D.C. only conceding 8 goals on the year...half of those again were last week. The Revs can not let D.C. United hang around and give notorious Revs killer Tai Baribo any chance to steal a result. If the Revs get a lead early, the focus should be on extending that lead as soon as possible, then you can pile on late with some counters.
New England scoring early is great; New England keeping their foot on the gas after that first goal would be better.
The schedule is not going to get easier despite the Revs lengthy home-heavy stretch leading up to and right after the World Cup. The Revs get Columbus at home, followed by a trip to the house of horrors that is MBS in Atlanta and then play at Inter Miami. While the Crew and Five Stripes are below the playoff line right now, games versus top three sides Nashville and Charlotte loom next month. So it's important the Revs continue to pass these tests against teams around them now so they can build up to harder matches down the road.
As always, we are joined by our good friend Ryan Keefer of The District Press to discuss all things Black and Red and DC's own prolonged rebuild. You can check out my answers to his questions over on their site and make sure you follow them for their half of the game coverage as well.
Sam Lattof
1) Any big signings or key new faces we should be aware of? And what do we think the ceiling is for DC United with the new signings?
To talk about the new signings you kind of have to go back to last year; Rene Weiler saw Caden Clark when Montreal played D.C. last August and was impressed, to the point where D.C. shipped $700,000 of allocation money to get him, and he’s only started one regular season game for D.C. since. Over the offseason, D.C. spent $7 million on Louis Munteanu, and when he’s been healthy, he’s been a substitute. So Weiler’s eye test could use some work!
On the flip side, Keisuke Kurokawa comes from the J League, and Silvan Hefti from HSV after being on the outs since they were promoted. Those fullbacks (Kurokawa left, Hefti right) have been pretty good thus far, and Hefti makes for a dilemma on what to do with Aaron Herrera (injured since preseason) once he’s back to full strength. Also in back, #1 pick Nikola Markovic has shown some promise in his appearances. D.C. also got Tai Baribo from Philly, and he’s scored almost as many as his former club has so far, and appears to be a good locker room guy so far as well, which has helped. But when taking the former two signings into account, a little bit of a mixed bag.
2) So Tai Baribo having three goals is good...the rest of the team having one goal and one assist combined seems bad, what's going on with the attacking half of the ball?
So if you take ASA’s Goals Added and filter by DC players, no attacker has a positive number; the first guy you’ll see is Jacob Murrell, whose 56 sub minutes account for -.01 thus far. Gabriel Pirani has yet to really take the next step you’d expect a U-22 player to take, Joao Peglow is healthy this year but non-existent, and Jackson Hopkins appears to be plateauing as a homegrown player. In sum, nobody’s there to tie the room together, and Pirani, the closest one whom you’d think would, isn’t. So back to the drawing board again for D.C. this summer on this, presumably.
3) DC started the year basically playing low scoring games before getting on the wrong end of a 4-0 pantsing against Dallas last week, what went wrong in that game and how can DC fix it this week?
D.C. United can’t not change their front office and technical staff out every 18 months, so what’s left is a collection of players signed from various years who tend to put their heads down when the opposition scores. Rene Weiler is trying to build a psyche for players to be confident in their work when he works on the defense first before attack from a roster build perspective. So when a 4-0 happens and Weiler talks about a culture from 2025, it’s really a culture from about 2023 onwards. So there may have been some coaching involved from last week which will hopefully ratchet things down again.
Injuries: Out: Nealis (Shoulder), Karamoko (Illness), Segal (Foot),Questionable: Baribo (lower body)
Lineup: Johnson; Kurokawa/Rowles/Bartlett/Hefti; Peglow/Hopkins/Peltola/Clark; Pirani; Murrell
Prediction: D.C.’s pretty much in line with their actual vs expected GF/GA numbers, however on the outside the Revs look like an overperformer. I wouldn’t say D.C. will win, but given that and a presumed Leo Campana absence, this has the markings of a rock fight, except Steve Nicol coaches a bunch of unknown DC players. Revs win 2-0.
