Before we get into the match, I didn't understand the discourse around Australia being mad at Mike Grella's "layup" comment.

First, there's far worse takes from far worse pundits to go after at this World Cup. Second, there's a difference between confidence and disrespect and I don't think Grella crossed that line. Group D was a very balanced group led by the USA playing at home who were always going to be favored to win all three games. I said in my primer series that I thought one and potentially two Round of 16 capable teams could be eliminated in the group stage.

Finally, I had Australia finishing last in the group. I didn't think they would beat Turkey based on their current form and resume, which let me double check my notes here...included losing to the USMNT in a Friendly back in October, only winning half their qualifying matches, and only scoring 9 goals in 8 qualifiers against teams not named Bahrain.

Now, yes, Australia only lost one qualifier and took four out of six points against group winners Japan...who they finished four points behind despite winning the series against them. That seems like a major red flag for your World Cup expectations.

The Aussies felt like they were in between talent generations, veterans like keeper Mathew Ryan, forward Mathew Leckie, and midfielder Jackson Irvine eventually will give way to talents like Nestory Irankunda and Patrick Beach who starred in the win against Turkey. Four years from now I think we'll be asking if Australia is a potential quarterfinal darkhorse, but coming into this tournament I had the most questions about their attacking corps out of anyone in the group.

2026 FIFA World Cup Group D TV Schedule and Primer: Australia, Paraguay, Turkey, United States
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And through two games...I don't think Australia has answered any of those attacking questions other than we know that Nestory Irankunda is good at soccer. Being a defense first team is completely fine, but only having 6 out of 14 total shots on target to generate about 1.5 xG across two games is pushing the boundaries of defense first to only defense.

Which is why I think the USMNT should have been confident in beating Australia yesterday, and while maybe Mike Grella overdid it on his analysis after the draw, I think he was spot on before the game and I think the USMNT players were right to push those comments aside.

"One word has driven the entire country of Australia crazy," Grella added on the Pat McAfee Show via USA Today. "And this is a layup for the U.S. men's national team. The level of players, the level of coaching and they're on home soil. This is a layup. But you don't make every layup."

If the USMNT did what they were capable of, the should beat Australia by multiple goals at home more often than not. And they did. And they might have won this game before kickoff because...

POCHETTINO WAS COOKING...

Okay, what do you do when your best player is going to miss the game due to a calf injury against a bunkering team?

Add a second striker and go FOUR FOUR F&#$!@ TWO LADS!!!

Okay so maybe it wasn't always a 4-4-2, but it did give Folarin Balogun a strike partner in Ricardo Pepi to help occupy defenders, got Sergino Dest further up the field, and got Alex Freeman further up the field which he was kind of doing a little bit of already as a wide centerback and did perfectly well as a right back at the Gold Cup last summer.

How long did it take that second striker to make an impact? Eleven minutes.

Thierry Henry is good at the soccer analysis. Just like I think the USMNT's preferred 3-5-2 look gets Jedi Robinson and Sergino Dest in their best positions, I think this was the best setup to try and break down Australia.

And it didn't need to be perfect. The USMNT forcing another opening own goal is also absurd because it is the first time in the World Cup someone has benefitted from own goals in back to back games and the first time someone a team has scored in the first 15 minutes in its first two matches since 1938.

Alex Freeman's header right before halftime I think was rightly overturned into a good goal from VAR because despite Balogun's offside position, neither he nor Beach were getting to that ball. That means Poch's two biggest tactical maneuvers, two strikers and RB Freeman, were decisions that directly led to the USMNT scoring in the first half.

Which is interesting because...

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...TONY POPOVIC WAS NOT COOKING

Listen, full credit to the Socceroos coach in game one against Turkey, everything he did in that game from starting Beach in goal over the veteran worked to perfection.

Everything yesterday kind of stunk. Australia looked a little better once the halftime subs including Irankunda came in, but by that point the damage was done. There wasn't much of a chance to recover from only having 40% or so of the ball and a 2-for-5 shooting performance that managed to generate about a third of a goal in xG.

Yes, Australia did well to limit the USA's chances, but when you aren't threatening that backline at all, you can't take advantage of the space the USMNT tends to leave behind its fullbacks tactically. And if you can't exploit that space or the USA doesn't make a mistake, it's just as hard to break down an organized American formation.

Combine that with the USA did this without Christian Pulisic who was questionable all week with a calf knock and I think a lot of Aussie fans should be disappointed by this one because this one might have been over before it started.

COLD TURKEY

Now that the United States has secured a knockout bid won Group D outright, we need to have a serious talk about Turkey who joins the ranks of the eliminated and could be in line for the most disappointing performance at the entire World Cup.

This is simply just woeful attacking numbers and include 45 minutes of playing against a 10-man Paraguay team because Miguel Almiron was running covering his mouth. Overall Turkey trailed for the better part of 150 minutes between their two games, giving up goals in the 2nd and 27th minutes.

Again, it's one thing to run into a hot keeper in Patrick Beach who made a few nice saves, but for the most part when you're taking long range shots all the time you're rarely going to be generating big chances.

Maybe Arda Guler playing as a CAM instead of a winger isn't helping, but I don't think that's the main issue here. Something else isn't working for Turkey across the board here. The possession is fine, maybe the set piece/crossing needs some work, but to be undone and lose both games to a combined Australia/Paraguay attack that managed a total of 6 shots on goal is just unheard of.

The deli turkey sandwich I ate overnight that was plain with the blandest white American cheese on it and lettuce had more zip than the Turkey offense at the World Cup. This was author error I forgot to add cheddar and mustard, both things that turkey and Turkey are improved by and need desperately.

UPCOMING MATCHES

Thursday, June 25

Match 59: Turkey vs. United States, 10 p.m. on Fox (Los Angeles)

Match 60: Paraguay vs. Australia, 10 p.m. on FS1 (Santa Clara, Calif.)

So, uh, the USMNT might be able to rest people next week. Maybe give Tim Ream the night off, Pulisic more time with his balky calf, Matt Turner a start in goal, Tim Weah a start up top? A full rotation in the midfield and only use one of Adams/McKennie/Tillman really late? Ditto for the full/wing backs, Arfsten and Scally/Freeman getting looks out wide.

It's all to play for between Paraguay and Australia for second place, but its La Albirroja who absolutely need the win as the Socceroos have the current goal difference advantage. Runner up in Group D will play the runner-up in Group G (Belgium/Egypt/Iran/New Zealand who are all level on a point after one match played) and it's still too early to figure out third place scenarios but I would not want be Paraguay with a potentially bigger negative GD number and Almiron is missing the next game as well. I don't think the Aussies will make the mistake of fully sitting back again either.