Know Thy Enemy: Renewal of Smoldering Revolution-Fire Derby Edition

The Revs begin a key stretch against Eastern Conference foes with a road game in Chicago.

Photo By J. Alexander Dolan

Alright, we’re going to try and lay out a plan to salvage what has been a dreadful start for the New England Revolution. Though this is a far too optimistic concept, it does exist in a realm of possibility. The same realm of possibility where the Patriots, Revs, and Whalers currently play in Hartford - Happy 25th Anniversary to the death of the Hartford Pats by the way.

The New England Revolution currently have a 1W-7L-1D record with four points and sit last in the Eastern Conference. The Revs will play 5 games in the month of May - at Chicago, at RBNY, vs Philly, vs NYC, and at Columbus - and at a minimum probably need to be improve their points per game average to at least 1.0 to begin any serious climb out of the basement towards the playoffs.

Now a 1.0 PPG will still be significantly off the pace for a playoff spot but at least it won’t be almost a full point on average behind the teams currently in the play-in spots. Looking fairly far ahead, that matchup with the Crew on May 29th (if it’s played) would be right before the CCC Final so it’s possible that gets moved or features a heavily rotated squad.

If I’ve done the math correctly, this puts the Revs in a position of having to win at least three out of their next five and claim 10 out of a possible 15 points against four teams currently in the East playoffs. Like I said, this isn’t a good plan it’s just the reality of the situation and the best I have at the moment.

The lone team currently below the cut line - the 12th place Fire who have more points in their last five games than the Revs have all season and they’ve only scored in one of those games. Yes, I’m not kidding and no it absolutely does not make sense because MLS so it actually makes perfect sense and more on that in a bit.

Also, that 1-1 draw at home a month ago hurts just a little bit more now because that was actually a decent offensive performance from the Revs who posted over 2 xG that game from putrid 4 of 13 shooting. It makes today’s road game all the more important to get a result in to build anything that resembles momentum in this season.

Once again we are joined by our good friend Ruben Tisch of The Lantern newsletter who I am surprised is still talking to me after the UConn Men posted a 30—0 run on Illinois in the Elite Eight in March. Be sure to head on over to his site for my answers to his questions.

1. Since the first NE-CHI meeting, the Fire have notched 5 points in their last 5 games while somehow being shutout four times?!?! How did you beat Houston and just how bad has the offense gotten?

The glib answer is that Houston are in the Western Conference and are therefore bad.  The reality is that they got good performances from their important players in Shaqiri and Gutierrez and were able to stop Houston from doing anything. It was a defense-first performance where they converted their chances. 

There’s a fundamental piece missing in the Fire offense. They’ve been stuck with a guy who is not The Guy and was supposed to be The Guy in Xherdan Shaqiri. Brian Gutierrez has been relegated to a more secondary role to try to facilitate Shaqiri as The Guy,  and has regressed in his aggressive nature a bit; which was always one of his biggest strengths. And as a result, they can’t get service into Hugo Cuypers to score goals. They did look better in their draw last week against Atlanta with Shaq injured who is also probably out this weekend, so that’s a positive. But when you whiff so badly on your DP that you play better without him, that’s a problem in and of itself. 

2. Surely there has to be a bright spot for Chicago over the last few games, give us something positive from a specific player or anything to brighten the mood.

Andrew Gutman is back and looked good in his hour plus last week against the Five Stripes. And the defense has looked good overall, the game against RSL aside. Being the only team other than Nashville in the opener and the Columbus Crew to hold the New York Red Bulls scoreless this season says a lot about how seriously this team concentrates and focuses on defensive organizing. 

Also, Chris Brady is already a better goalkeeper than Gaga Slonina and doesn’t have the buzz he did about going off to Europe, so he could be a fixture here for a long time. And if he does go, they have another academy teenager in Patrick Los ready to go. 

3. A win could at least get the Fire in and around the Eastern Conf play-in games at 13 points, but is it too early to call this a must-win for Chicago at home?

In a sense, there are no must-win games this year. It already feels like they took a punt on 2024 when the FO was retained along with Klopas in order to finish the various projects surrounding the club-- the new practice facility, the rebuilding of the academy system, et cetera. The only way changes are made is if Frank decides he doesn’t want to coach anymore and resigns, and I don’t see that happening.

In the micro sense of the 2024 season, it’s absolutely a must-win. Injuries or not, the Fire should be better than the Revs, especially with the way the Revs have been playing to start the season. The Men in Red need a win to avoid falling into the abyss that they’re already stumbling into. And with a 3 game week coming up, 3 points here are imperative. 

Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.

The Fire played a 4-4-2 last week and it was pretty successful in creating scoring opportunities. I’d expect a similar setup with the caveat of Brian Gutierrez being healthy enough to play. With Shaqiri and Haile-Selassie still out, and Tobias Salquest, too, I’d keep things as comfortable as possible. 

The Fire should win 2-1.