Revs Gambled on April Signings And Have Come Out Ahead
Revs Gambled on April Signings And Have Come Out Ahead
At least for the time being.
New England has now won 4 straight matches after an abysmal start to the 2024 season. They started the season by picking up just 7 of a possible 39 points, but have been perfect since then, taking 12 from a possible 12 so far in June.
Head coach Caleb Porter thinks that, at least in part, the reason for the turnaround has to do with some players returning from injury, as well as an influx of newly made signings.
[Ivačič] was a big part of us preserving that win with a couple massive saves that he made… Everybody wants to know, where did it turn? Well, a big part of it was getting him, Arreaga, getting Dylan Borrero back, getting DeJuan Jones, who I thought was excellent today, back.
The club has had to deal with a fair number of injuries spanning back to last year. They attempted to address some of the longer term injuries to players like Borrero and Bye with Chancalay and Lima.
But the remainder of the club’s acquisitions have been firmly defense-oriented. On December 11th the Revs signed the aforementioned right-back Nick Lima. But that was also followed up by center back Jonathan Mensah and goalkeeper Henrich Ravas in early January. As the transfer window drew to a close in April, the Revolution brought in another center-back and another goalkeeper: Xavier Arreaga and Aljaž Ivačič respectively.
That’s a lot of attention being paid towards the defensive side of the field. All for a team that has conceded the 3rd highest expected goals against of any team in MLS.
However, things appear to have reached an inflection point. Given the recent run of form and Porter’s comments, let’s focus our attention on two of these new signings - Aljaž Ivačič, and Xavier Arreaga - how they’ve adapted in New England, and how they have helped improve the team.
Aljaž Ivačič
New England acquired Ivačič on April 23rd, after the Portland Timbers waived him on March 19th.
Last year was a weird one for the Slovenian keeper. After leading the league in saves in 2022, 2023 was filled with drama including arguments with coaches, riding the bench, a complaint filed with the MLSPA, and an eventual suspension for using “threatening language” towards the Timbers staff.
His form on the field was also poor last year, making just 15 starts and allowing nearly 2 goals/90 in that time.
Altogether, that made the idea of signing Aljaž Ivačič a risky proposition. And not one many teams were willing to make.
But the Revolution (possibly just Caleb Porter) were ready to make a change in net. They brought him in to train with the team to evaluate the fit and, two weeks later, made the signing official.
The risk was somewhat mitigated by the fact that Portland was still on the hook for his salary, which allowed them to place him on their “supplemental” roster. If it worked out, this represented a great value. It isn’t costing much, even if it doesn’t work out.
Umm… so is it working out?
So far, I’d say it’s going as well as could be expected.
I tend to focus a lot on how well a goalkeeper prevents goals as the main quality of interest. The best stat I’ve found to highlight that is Goals Allowed/expected Goals Allowed. Essentially, what percentage of expected goals are you allowing? Values over 1 mean you’re not stopping as many goals as expected while values lower than 1 mean… well the opposite. It’s a crude way to represent “goals prevented”.
The Revs have had their fair share of excellent shot-stopping seasons between Djordje Petrovic and Matt Turner (now both in England).
Ivačič hasn’t quite made it to that level yet, but his 0.88 GA/xGA (per AmericanSoccerAnalysis) is good enough to at least put him in the picture.
Another way to think of that number is: he’s allowing a goal about 88% of the times you would expect him to. That’s pretty good.
In fact, while it’s a small sample size (only 8 starts), his 0.88 GA/xGA would be his best season in MLS - if he maintains that level throughout the season. His best completed season was in 2022 where he allowed a goal on about 90% of expected goals.
Among keepers with at least 450 minutes, his “goals prevented” ratio is tied for 6th best in MLS this season.
The goalkeeper he replaced in the lineup, Henrich Ravas, had a GA/xGA ratio of 1.00, making him a statistically average shot-stopper.
While there’s some breathing room between the two of them, there are still reasons for Ivačič to continue to produce.
In particular, he could afford to clean up his passing and possession, exemplified here by an unforced error leading to a goal kick.
Xavier Arreaga
Also receiving praise from Caleb Porter after their 2-1 upset road win at Cincinnati was center-back Xavier Arreaga.
New England acquired Arreaga by way of a trade with the Seattle Sounders on April 23rd. In exchange for the former DP, New England sent a 2025 international roster spot and up to $75k worth of MLS funny-money. Once again, a relatively small outlay for a player with his track record.
But, also once again, this move didn’t come without risk.
After winning an MLS Cup in 2019 and a CONCACAF Champions Cup in 2022, an injury in 2023 pushed him down the Sounder’s depth chart. He had garnered a reputation among fans as somewhat mistake prone, which reared it’s ugly head in his final game with the Sounders, against the Vancouver Whitecaps.
His stats through the early part of the 2024 season weren’t great and, combined with plays like that, it was hard for Seattle to justify giving him more playing time. Given the emergence of Jackson Ragen and Arreaga’s salary, it made sense for Seattle to move on.
New England — in the end — was willing to take the gamble that a change of scenery could help him turn things around.
Fortunately for the Revs, that seems to be at least partly true.
This radial plot shows 5 key defensive attributes (stats from fbref) - all scaled as a percentage of the 2024 league leader in each category. Arreaga has shown improvement in virtually every category since joining the Revs in April, as compared to his time with Seattle to start the year.
For example, his tackles+interceptions per 90 has increased from 38.6% to 83.6% of the league leader in that statistical category since he made the switch. Likewise, his clearances per 90 have increased from 19.9% to 67.7% of the league leader in that category.
Since joining the Revs, he has looked a far cry from the player who gifted Brian White a goal in that clip above. According to that same set of stats, he may even be the Revs’ best defender.
Now it’s worth noting that this isn’t a completely fair comparison. Kessler, Romney, and Arreaga have (by now) played roughly similar numbers of games, but the sample sizes are small. Small enough that quality-of-opponent and game-states probably play a factor in these stats.
But if we just take them as they are, Arreaga leads the CB corps in successful tackles/90, tackle percentage, and tackles+interceptions/90. Dave Romney has an edge in terms of blocks/90 and clearances/90.
The stats seem to bear out the idea that Arreaga is the Revs’ first-choice CB, at least on the defensive side of the ball. He has also, however, shown some promise in possession and in the attack as well.
Arreaga has proven himself an adept dribbler of the ball with a clear understanding of when to progress the ball into space. He has also shown to be dangerous on set pieces, wracking up the 6th highest expected goals on the team.
The Revolution gambled by taking Aljaž Ivačič and Xavier Arreaga at the transfer deadline in April. For the time being, those gambles appear to be paying off. Will that continue? Who knows. But for now we can bask in a few solid performances and a 4 game win streak.
Love articles with data like this!
Good info. What about another trade with NYCFC for Talles Magno? 950K salary but we would only have it for 1/2 year. He is a Young DP so that complicates things unless the new DP rules are in effect. Maybe buy him down with TAM. Swap him for Vrioni even.