New England Revolution Playoff Push Preview
A look at what the Revs needs to do and how they have to do it against to make the playoffs...
The New England Revolution and Caleb Porter believe they are capable of a run to the playoffs over their last eleven games, starting this Saturday away to CF Montreal.
The Revs currently sit in last place in the Eastern Conference on 23 points, five points behind ninth-place Atlanta, the last playoff position. There are also five teams between New England and Atlanta. The lone bright spot in the league standings for the Revs is their two games in hand against all six of these teams and three in hand over eighth-placed Toronto FC.
The number of points needed to slide into the ninth spot could wind up being lower than in recent years. In 2023, 43 points were enough to finish ninth in the Eastern Conference, in 2022 ninth position wasn’t a playoff spot but it took 42 points to wind up there. In 2021 it was a considerably higher total, a whopping 47 points were needed to grab ninth position. All of these were 34-game seasons, just like 2024.
The situation is looking better this year as the current holders of ninth position — Atlanta — are only on pace for 38 points. The Revs would need to improve their own points per game rate to even reach 39 points as they are currently on pace for just 34 points. To hit 39 points they need 16 points from their last 11 games.
If Atlanta or any of the five teams between them and the Revs hit their own uptick in form and reach the lowest ninth-placed total in the last three years of 42, the Revs would need to match that by picking up 19 points from here on out. Nineteen points from 11 games would look something like five wins, four draws and two losses or six wins, one draw and four losses.
Not an impossible task. If the Revs put together another five wins in seven like they did earlier this year, they’d only need to gain four points from the other four games remaining.
The major concern about the remaining schedule is twofold. For one, the Revs have two games in hand but their final two games of the season are away to the Columbus Crew — featuring DeJuan Jones — and Inter Miami on Decision Day. If either team has anything left to play for in those games and put out their best elevens, the Revs could struggle to get any precious points in the season’s final days. That would leave all those points needing to be acquired in nine games, not eleven.
The other concern is that all those summer games at Gillette, six of nine from June 8 to July 20, will be balanced out by playing seven of the last eleven away from home. The Revs will certainly need to improve on their away record of three wins and seven losses to make this last to ninth run happen.
The remaining four at home are against St. Louis, CF Montreal, Nashville, and DC United. All four are currently sitting along with the Revs outside the playoff places and all but St. Louis will need to be passed in the Eastern Conference standings to reach the playoffs. Needless to say, the Revs likely need all twelve points on offer in Foxboro this fall.
On the road the Revs will first head to CF Montreal this Saturday, owners of a five win, four draw and three loss home record so far this season. That’s followed up by a stiff test from the current third-placed Western Conference team, Real Salt Lake, who have won eight matches, tied one and lost only two at home this season. And points against Western Conference teams count just the same as ones from Eastern Conference foes and it will be tough to take so much as one of them back to New England from Utah.
The Revs will also travel to face Orlando City, who have lost five of 12 at home, Charlotte, with just two home losses, and Houston Dynamo, another dominant team at home with 17 points from 11 home games.
The Revs have had a chance to train for two weeks now, integrate their new arrivals, bring players back in from injury and mentally prepare for the road ahead. They’re going to have to go on a run the likes of which has eluded them this season so far, stay healthy, find some goals, find some consistency, and climb to a spot in the standings not held at any point all season.
Three points as soon as possible this Saturday night would do the math a lot of good, boost everyone’s confidence, and pull the Revs to within one point.
It’ll be game on with a win on Saturday, if they lose, well, you can do the math from here.
That's a lot of math! Thanks for figuring it all out.