Know Thy Enemy: Revolution vs. Stealing NYCFC's Lunch Edition

It's a food heavy preview week and shots may have fired against what is the best version of chowda and apizza in this rivalry.

Photo By John McGloughlin

Two weeks ago when we previewed the Red Bulls matchup we said it might be a little more of a mirror match than previously thought as the Energy Drinks were pivoting away from a full 90-minute smothering press team into something else.

This week is almost the true mirror matchup of where the Revs want to be as they host New York City FC tomorrow at 730 pm from Gillette Stadium, a City team who beat them 2-0 at Yankee Stadium back on April 13th.

Why do I think the Revs should be emulating NYC more? Well, imagine a team that plays solid defense, wins a lot of games by one goal cause of an insane goalkeeper, has a stud #10 playmaker, and solid wingers…sound familiar? It’s basically the Shield-winning Revs from 2021.

That’s NYCFC right now, the only thing they’re missing is a stud #9 up top and the Revs aren’t getting any production from that spot either so I think it should be kind of even between these two teams right now. NYC has a good roster but talent wise certainly seems like it’s a step down from recent years and that hasn’t mattered because they have all the signs of a well-coached team. Organization, simple tactics, teamwork, etc. - all things the Revolution are struggling with at the start of Caleb Porter’s tenure.

Now I’m not saying that Adam Buksa or Maxi Morales make the Revs immediate MLS Cup contenders but it probably would put NYC at that level. The metrics like NYC not nearly as much as I recall from a few years ago, but they’re not drastically over performing anything on either side of the ball which I think is the hallmark of a very balanced team that executes a gameplan consistently. If you’re a top-third team in both expected goals for and against, I think you’re doing something right.

Porter Views NYCFC Game As An Opportunity to Showcase Growth

Monsef Bakrar is currently leading the striker of shame position on ASA with a -3.86 G-xG number - he’s supposed to have scored almost 5 expected goals from 12/36 shooting and right now and he has one goal. For comparison, Giacomo Vrioni has a -1.25 mark from just 10/19 shooting and two goals where he’s supposed to have a little over three. So it does seem like NYC probably should be scoring a bit more than they are and when you’re the first team in the Shield standings with a negative GD-xGD mark, that kind of tracks.

If NYC starts getting consistent production from its striker position instead of the Santi Rodriguez show with help from the scoring committee, that is going to be a dangerous team in November. Double this if Matt Freese continues to ascend into the Matt Turner zone (Turner broke -8 twice in 2019 and 2020 and Petro was a -10.75 in 2022) on ASA where he’s currently at a -3.77 xG-GA mark, third best in the league so far.

As for the Revolution, they have more problems than an underperforming DP striker, a lot more problems. Yes, some of those problems are health-related, we’ll see if DeJuan Jones is back from injury to cover the suspended Ryan Spualding at left back, but this feels like a team that is not playing within their abilities and it’s actively hurting them while their opponents seemingly week in and week out recently are doing just that and getting results.

Anyway, you’re getting this on a Friday because the NYC lads are far more proactive than me and like publishing things well before gameday, probably because they’re not getting extra shifts at work and missing valuable and much-needed nap time. Absolute sicko behavior if you ask me but I do work overnights.

Matthew Mangam of Hudson River Blue is back with us today as he was last month and things are going rather well. Be sure to head on over to their site for my answers to Matthew’s questions. Kris Heneage of NYCFC dot com content czar fame was kind enough to let me regale Pigeon fans of why I’m big in Belize and slander a couple of NYC food icons. Seth Macomber talked to Apple TV’s Chris Wittyngham about this weekend’s game and also got his Patriot Place food spots and Chris is firmly on Team New Haven in the Pizza Wars much to the dismay of The Cooligans.

Leave your favorite Patriot Place/Boston/local food recommendations in the comments below to make up for my nonsense.

Chris Wittyngham Discusses The Revs, Caleb Porter, and NYCFC

TBM: So the last time we did this we talked about a very important stretch of games for NYC and they're on a three game win streak all by one goal - what has been the key for the team as a whole during that stretch that now has NYC in 3rd place in the East?

MM: NYCFC has been playing some great soccer. Over the last three games, I can't really say anyone has had a bad game or made any big mistakes. Everyone is doing their part and the team is playing with a swagger and confidence that was not dsen at all last season. Now that NYCFC have gotten that first away win of the season and Mounsef Bakrar has scored his first goal since September 2023, it feels like everything is coming together. Matt Freese, as usual, has been key in seeing out those one-goal wins for New York City, there are no words to describe how crucial he has been this season. 

TBM: Now more individually focused, who has been a key player over the last three games to a month that has stood out and helped key the Pigeons good run of form?

MM: Hannes Wolf is the clear-cut answer. The Austrian had two assists against Toronto, scored a cross/shot free kick against Philadelphia, and scored against the Red Bulls in what was a patient, well-worked finish from him. Wolf has created nine big chances, the fourth-most in the MLS and only one less than Luciano Acosta and Jared Stroud who are tied for first. Wolf started off the season slow but is living up to his contract, as he is versatile and can dribble in tight spaces, playing through passes or creating shots for himself. 

TBM: Back to back games against the last place teams in the East and West (SJ) the next two weeks... then a game against Columbus. Do we think this NYC team is a contender in the East or do we need to wait until that Crew matchup to test the baseline?

MM: Bias aside, this NYCFC team has picked up results against good teams, such as Toronto and the Red Bulls. Yes, the upcoming games are against weaker opponents, but good teams win every game. The Columbus game will definitely be a test, but I do feel confident in saying that NYCFC should finish in the top six in the Eastern Conference. Everyone is playing well right now and the team has good depth. 

Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.

James Sands will be out due to yellow card suspension, so as for an XI:

4-2-3-1: Freese (GK), O'Toole (LB), Risa (LCB), Martins (RCB), Gray (RB), Parks (LCM), Perea (RCM), Jones (LM) or Ojeda (LM), Rodríguez (CAM), Wolf (RM), Bakrar (ST)