How, Somehow, The Revs Can Make Playoffs
The Revs may not have hope, luck, logic or time on their side but they still math in their corner...
You’re alive at a time where a MLS team can be sitting in fourteenth place after 31 of 34 games have been played, five spots below the playoff line, having won one game in their last seven, never actually been in a playoff position all year and still mathematically in playoff contention.
Welcome to the 2024 MLS Eastern Conference, where the question “should this team even be a playoff team?” is applicable to half the teams in it. Your New England Revolution are one of those teams, of course, as, purely in terms of results, their entire campaign for the playoffs is propped up by five wins in six games by one goal a piece back in June and early July.
The Revs have to jump Toronto, Philadelphia, DC United, Atlanta, and Nashville in the standings to finish 9th and likely face Montreal in the play-in game. That’s right, the same team the Revs ripped to pieces 5-0 just over a month ago are currently sitting in 8th place, three points clear of the three teams below.
Let’s take a look at each of the teams ahead of the Revs and what needs to happen for the Revs to overtake them to get into the playoffs.
Toronto FC, 9th place, 37 points
TFC has only one game left, this Saturday against Inter Miami. They are the lone team sitting out decision day. If they were to beat Miami and finish on 40 points and 12 wins the Revs would need to win three of three and improve their goal difference by about 10 goals or more.
If Toronto ties with Miami and finishes on 38 points the Revs would either need to win all three remaining games or win two and draw one and drastically improve their goal difference. If Toronto loses, the Revs would need either two wins from three with a huge swing in goal difference or two wins and a draw to pass them on points.
The Revs need to work on their goal difference compared to TFC because if both teams finish on 40 or 38 points, they would also be tied on wins for the season, which is MLS’ first tiebreaker. This will be mentioned again.
Philadelphia, 10th place, 37 points
Philly has the same number of points as TFC but only nine wins and two games remaining. Those two games are away to Columbus this weekend and then at home against Cincinnati, not an easy finish.
If Philly lost both of their remaining games, the Revs would just need to win two of three. That would leave the teams level on points but the Revs ahead in wins, 11 to 9, wins being the first tiebreaker. If Philly wins both games, the Revs can’t catch them. If they win one, draw one, the Revs can’t catch them. If they tie both, the Revs have to win out to end up ahead on points, 40-39.
D.C. United, 11th place, 37 points
D.C. is in the same scenario as Philly as they are equal on points and wins on the season. The twist is that they play the Revs on Saturday. A D.C. United win would bring the Revs playoff hopes to an end. For real. If D.C. and the Revs tie, D.C. could still get to 41 points with a win at home on the final day against Charlotte. The Revs cannot get to 41 points under any scenario.
If the Revs beat D.C. United in front of 30,000 children and 15,000 season ticket holders on Saturday night, D.C. could still get to 40 points, meaning the Revs would need two more wins to match that points tally and finish above them thanks to having 12 wins to D.C.’s 10.
A Revs win followed by D.C. losing their last game would then only require the Revs to win one of their last two. That would have both teams on 37 points and the Revs ahead on wins, 11 to 9.
The D.C. United game on Saturday is a mathematical must-win.
Atlanta, 12th place, 34 points
Atlanta can get to 40 points and 10 wins if they win their two remaining games, home to NY Rich Energy and away to Orlando. If that were to happen, the Revs just need to win three of three to finish level with Atlanta on 40 points and go above them in the standings with 12 wins to Atlanta’s 10.
If Atlanta wins one and draws one and finishes on 38 points, the Revs would need to either win three of three or win two and draw one. Under that second scenario, the Revs would once again go above in the standings thanks to 11 wins to Atlanta’s 9. If Atlanta draws both their remaining games to finish on 36 points, two wins for the Revs would do the trick, as would a win and two draws, thanks again to wins as the tiebreaker.
Should Atlanta gain no further points this season, the Revs need one win to finish ahead of them or three draws to finish level on points and ahead in the standings based on…let’s say it all together…wins being the tiebreaker.
Nashville, 13th place, 33 points
The simplest math here is that the Revs can get to a max of 40 points where as Nashville can only get to 39. If both teams win out, the Revs finish ahead. Nashville faces a complete fraud of a team from New York playing at home in New Jersey in someone else’s stadium this Saturday and then away to Chicago who will have to be convinced to turn up on the final day.
If Nashville finishes with 37 points thanks to a win and a draw, the Revs just need two more wins to match that points total and, well, you know what comes next but we are nothing if not thorough here at The Blazing Musket, ahead on wins, 11 to 9.
Two draws and 35 points to end the season for Nashville means the Revs would only need two wins or a win and two draws. A win and two draws would also put the Revs on 35 points but by the power of Ricky Bobby’s father’s words that if you ain’t first, your last, the Revs would take the higher spot due to having more wins.
One more point for Nashville this year and the Revs could move past them with one more win or three draws as that would leave them both on 34 points and, drink, the Revs ahead on wins, 9 to 8. And finally, if Nashville gains no more points and finishes Larry Bird(33 points) on the season, a simple two draws from the Revs would put them over our Music City friends thanks to the sweet-sounding words, having had more wins on the season.
The most remarkable thing about all of the above, aside from the fact I choose to type it all out, is that the only game left this season between any of the six teams positioned between 9th and 14th is the Revs vs D.C. this Saturday. It creates a totally ridiculous scenario where the Revs have a path to finish ahead of every single one of the teams standing in their way to the playoffs. Not every path leads to the playoffs but there are ways to jump as many as five teams in the standings in just three games at the end of a 34 game season.
It shouldn’t be possible but it is.