Pinzone: Have The Revs Found A Formula For Success?

The Revolution have striking statistical differences when they win and when they don't this season...

Photo By J. Alexander Dolan

The New England Revolution grinded their way to a narrow and desperately needed win on Saturday night against Nashville. It marked just their third win from fourteen games but with the halfway point of the season approaching, we’ve seen just enough to go looking for what works and what doesn’t.

There looks to be a formula the Revs can follow to more victories going forward in the twenty remaining games this season and it doesn’t match the original blueprint that Caleb Porter laid out earlier this year. But luckily for Porter — and potentially for us — his ever twisting narrative of whatever is working is the plan and whatever doesn’t isn’t my fault might just mean him and the Revs embrace what will be laid out below.

Let’s have a look at the stats and the tactics to fit those stats, with a few reminders of Porter’s past comments to add some fun along the way.

Let’s get the perfectly obvious out of the way right off the bat, the Revs win when they face a struggling opponent. The Revs have gotten all ten points against Chicago, Charlotte, and Nashville who are averaging 1.18 points per game. They’ve lost ten games to eight different teams averaging 1.55 points per game.

Over a full 34-game season that’s a 53-point season for the teams the Revs have lost to and a 40-point season for the teams they have beaten. In short, on average when they face a playoff-caliber team, they lose, when they don’t, they win.

In order to be a playoff-caliber team themselves, they are going to have to win some games against the stronger teams and at some point go on a winning streak. They can step closer to both those goals this Saturday at home against New York Celsius.

Peering a little bit more at the Revs’ opponents we also find that all three teams they have taken points off of are underachieving their expected goals, whereas half the teams they’ve lost to are overachieving their xG. Nashville pummeled the Revs with 26 shots (18 from inside the penalty area), hit the post and crossbar, and yet scored just once. They will need to be ready for sharper shooting from New York this weekend, who are outperforming their xG by 5.2 goals, 5th best in MLS.

One defensive issue the Revs have had is their struggles to defend in central areas. Their double pivot has been ineffective and at times not functioning to the detriment of the back line and goalkeeper who are left exposed more often than they should. Matt Polster and Mark-Anthony Kaye got a lot of credit for their Saturday night performances but it should be noted they were on the ball less than usual and weren’t challenged with central attacking play much at all by Nashville.

Nashville pumped crosses into the Revs area all night long, twenty-nine in total. The only other team to hit more crosses against the Revs was Chicago, with 30 when the Revs beat them. The Revs have faced 20+ opposition crosses four times this season and won three out of those four.

Opponents looking to work the ball into the Revs’ goal more intricately have found far more joy as they have lost all four games when having to deal with less than 10 crosses. Polster and Kaye being better organized centrally to show play out wide along with narrower defending from the wide mids to thoroughly control the central areas would seemingly play in the Revs’ favor.

It’s easy to see why the Revs deal with crosses so well, Kessler, Romney, Arreaga, Kaye, and Polster are all adept penalty area defenders. Polster in particular is a battling, scrappy, hard-nosed player. That’s to his detriment quite often outside the box but he does his best work in the penalty area.

Enough about the opponent, Porter said this would be a team that decides the game with the ball, presses high, scores goals, makes things happen! He said they were becoming a positional-based, not transition-based team that would form an impenetrable, ball-circulating machine 3-2 base and build out of the back! You. Will. Know. The. Style.

And sure, he’s backtracked on every single word of that, he loves transitions! Long balls? Why not! Shooting in a 1v2 from a poor angle at the edge of the penalty area with your underperforming center forward lurking in a more central position? I love this kid!

In the most incredible ongoing act of self-preservation outside of politics, Porter has shifted his narrative brilliantly, and here’s why…

Caleb Porter Comments on Dave Romney's Return To The XI

The Revs have had 55% or more possession in seven games this season and taken one point. They’ve had 50% or less of the ball in seven games and taken nine points from all three wins on the year. Less is more.

In addition to compelling my wife to become bored to death of watching this team, the Revs have been unsuccessful when plodding around in the midfield third, making lots of passes and going nowhere. In the 11 games without a win this season the Revs are averaging 305 touches in the midfield third. That number plummets down to just 213 per game in the three games they’ve won.

Building out from the back hasn’t been effective for the Revs either, when their goalkeepers have gone full launch and gone long on goal kicks 75% of the time or more, which they have done in five games, they’ve taken 9 points. When the goalkeepers have gone long on all their passes of any type more than half the time, they’ve picked up 6 points. The six times they’ve gone long less than 25% of the time? 1 point.

Now this might sound like a strong advocation for the Revs to turn into the Elton John-owned, Graham Taylor-coached Watford of the 1970s and 80s but it is not. For one, while I do admire the musical genius of Elton John, my coaching idol is Marcelo Bielsa. I don’t want to watch a low-block sitting, long ball launching, smash mouth collection of hooligans every other Saturday at Gillette. Now, a mid-block team with rapid counterattacks with sharp, intricate runs and balls along the ground leading to quick action around goal? Yes, please.

And that also fits into our next stat. Pumping the ball downfield via route one usually involves a large amount of crossing. But for entertainment and results-based purposes, the Revs should stay away from the full implementation of being a route one team and avoid crossing. The Revs have attempted 20 or more crosses in seven games and gained one entire point. In the other seven games, they’ve taken 9 points while crossing less than 20 times.

Lastly, one interesting individual stat from the only player to play in all 14 games this season, the Captain. Carles Gil, when forced to drop into the Hotel California (…you can check out anytime you like but you can never leave) that is the center midfield third and take more than 40 touches there, the Revs have just one point from the six games he’s done so. When Gil isn’t frequently needed to be both the deep-lying and advanced center mid, only wandering into the middle third for less than 40 touches; the Revs have 9 points in those eight games.

Turns out, when you just get the ball to the advanced playmaker in the advanced playmaker areas, he can do a lot of damage. Spare a moment’s sympathy for those who have become so disillusioned with this season to suggest Vrioni try his feet as a playmaker in a false nine role.

Let’s just let Carles cook, as the kids and over forty adults trying to be hip say.

So that’s it, the formula is there for all to see. Move quickly through the midfield third with quick forward passing and energetic runs, value forward movement more than static passing, make sure the keepers get it gone, clog the middle when defending, defend the area like the bridge in Ramelle from Saving Private Ryan, and hope that stout defending causes the opponent to have a tough time finding the goal.

You need to create some luck along the way too, don’t forget.

It could be a formula that delivers results, largely based on the fact that it already has, and could even be entertaining to watch. And, well, that’s kind of the point of this whole thing isn’t it?

It won’t be long before the European Championship and Copa America kick-off, it’d be nice to have some reasons to stay focused on the Revs through the summer.