Know Thy Enemy: Revolution At End Of Long Road In NYC
Know Thy Enemy: Revolution At End Of Long Road In NYC
New England will soon play five of their next seven in Gillette, but need to get past the last match of a heavy road stretch.
A long stretch of five road matches out of six total games ends for the New England Revolution as they travel to the Bronx and Yankee Stadium to face off against New York City FC (330pm EDT / AppleTV+).
This road trip has not been particularly kind to the Revs who have picked up a total of five points in five games despite the plethora of additional injuries they’ve picked up in the last month. A draw would keep the Revs on that meager one point per game average though a win would do wonders for a team that has dropped well off the pace of East leaders FC Cincinnati in recent weeks.
There is a solid amount of positives to take from the six goals New England has tallied in their last two matchces despite two very different paths to reach the end of those games. The Revs press has featured prominently in each of their first tallies against Chicago and Atlanta enroute to a pair of 3-3 draws one to jump start a comeback and another to take a lead within the first thirty seconds. With the Revs short handed across the board, being able to generate turnovers and capitalize on them as a team has been a boon, especially with Carles Gil in prime scoring form.
On the other side, it’s been an even worse stretch for NYCFC, who have just a single point in their last six games which included a stretch of four road games followed by a pair of 3-1 home losses to Eastern powers Cincy and Philly. NYC’s slide has seen them drop to 14th in the East, just one point above Inter Miami in last.
Unlike these two playing to a 1-1 draw back in Gillette where chances were at a premium, today’s match likely will have far more chances as we know things tend to get a little weird in the outfield. Combine that with two thin lineups coming off midweek games and…yeah, whatever crazy and/or odd scenario you think could happen today probably will.
Joining us to dive into the murky waters known as the 2023 NYCFC campaign is our good friend Oliver Strand of Hudson River Blue. Be sure to check out my answers to their question over on their site.
TBM: Okay, so only one point from that four-game road trip then combined with a pair of 3-1 home losses to Philly and Cincy, who are two of the best teams in the East, is a wretched run of form. What has gone wrong the last month or so for NYCFC specifically or is this just the schedule biting both of us in the you know what at the same time?
OS: Do you mean what has gone wrong with the season? Which I suppose is a little unfair — it's not so much a question of what's gone wrong than what's going on, which is a rebuild, or a retool, or whatever you want to call it. This team was stripped down to the studs in the offseason and hasn't been fully put back together. It's not the schedule, it's the roster, which remains two or so players away from being complete.
All that said, the team looked sharp on Wednesday against a tough Cincinnati, and could have won the game with more consistent officiating. The goal scored by Gabriel Pereira absolutely should have stood, and had NYCFC gone up then I think you see a very different match with New York City delivering the sucker-punch instead of being on the receiving end.
The fact is that this is a fragile team, and a work in progress. They're playing much better now than they were at the start of May. Right now they're not getting the results they arguably deserve.
TBM: Gabriel Pereira, Santi Rodriguez, and Talles Mango did well to carry the attacking load the first part of the year but is that enough attacking prowess for a playoff team or is a big summer signing needed to bolster the top of the formation? Any rumors/targets that may be inbound to the Bronx next month?
OS: Yep, the team needs somebody and fast.
Right now the NYCFC starting striker is Gabriel Segal, who scored exactly zero professional goals before signing with New York City. The unspoken expectation was that he would see time at NYCFC II, develop his game, maybe fill in for the Senior Team. But the club didn't sign a primary striker, then traded away Héber (which is OK), and loaned out Thiago (also OK), and tried to reposition Talles Magno (which wasn't OK), which is why we have a hard-working but untested 22-year-old leading the attack. To Gabe's credit, he scored a terrific goal against Orlando to tie the game at the death. But it's hard to build a formation around a striker who has one professional goal.
Are there rumors of a trade? Yes. Will one play out? Possibly. I think money is an issue — City Football Group might be the Daddy Warbucks of soccer but every team in that portfolio has a budget. If Taty Castellanos is sold this summer then the team could splash out on a transfer fee. If not, we might be looking at more economical options, young and untested players the club could try to develop.
TBM: Sean Johnson's departure obviously is a major change for this club in goal, how has Luis Barraza been doing this year as the starter? I see that NYCFC only have one shutout in league play this year but something tells me that's not on him at all.
OS: The backline has the unfortunate habit of giving away at least one goal almost every game. It's not all Barraza, but it's not not Barraza. Freese was in goal against Cincinnati and he played well despite the scoreline. He's more athletic than Barraza but he doesn't represent a big upgrade, at least not yet.
How much for Đorđe Petrović?
TBM: I know the middle of the East is a jumbled mess, but NYCFC currently four spots out of the playoffs and barely getting over a point a game - can this team rebound and be a threat for the playoffs or is this looking like a rebuild year?
OS: Yes, they could be a threat. If the team play like they did against Cincinnati – and if they add a striker – they should make the playoffs and even make a deep postseason run. If they play like they did and don't add a striker they could squeak into the playoffs, which would be nice. If they play like they did earlier in May, when they couldn't manage a single shot on goal, then the season might end in October.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.
(Author’s Note: MLS announced a psuedo-suspension/investigation involving NYC defender Tayvon Gray ruling him ineligible for today’s game though Oliver’s initial lineup did not feature him.)
This is maybe the most difficult question to answer. Head coach Nick Cushing has used the same lineup only twice in 16 games, and the most recent Starting XI was the wildest one yet, with a back-three that have never played together.
Is Talles Magno still injured? Thiago Martins? Matí Pellegrini? If any of those players are fit they could start. Or maybe start on the bench.
I could see him sticking with the back-three, or returning to a 4-3-3. Really, I could offer up four different lineups and still be mostly wrong, but here goes:
Santiago Rodríguez - Gabriel Segal - Gabriel Pereira
Keaton Parks - James Sands - Alfredo Morales
Braian Cufré - Tony Alfaro - Maxime Chanot - Stephen Turnbull
Luis Barraza
If NYCFC play like they did against Cincinnati, it could finish 2-1 in favor of New York City. I could also see it flipping and New England winning. It sure ain't going to be 0-0. Can I leave it at that?