Know They Enemy: Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Strange Streaks Edition
Second place Cincy comes to Foxboro winless in four, while the Revs sit in tenth unbeaten in nine.
The New England Revolution begin a “month” long homestand beginning with FC Cincinnati visiting Gillette Stadium tonight (730 PM EDT, MLS Season Pass/Apple TV+).
No, we’re not going to talk about why the CONCACAF Gold Cup and FIFA Club World Cup are going on at the same time as regular season games. I have better things to do…like figuring out how Cincy has given up nine goals in their last three games when they had only given up 15 in their first fifteen games.
Well looking at their current availability report sheds so light on a backline that was very close to getting back to full strength before Nick Hagglund went down with an injury and Miles Robinson left for USMNT duty and Matt Miazga is still working back to full fitness from last year’s season ending injury.
Now, despite the current calamitous backline issues, Cincy’s offense still remains as potent as ever with Kevin Denkey and Gerardo Valenzuela each notching two goals over the last three games. So despite Cincy conceding a lot more than usually, they’re still scoring just fine.
We’re going to note that prior to this little hiccup, Cincinnati had won seven of eight games. Compared to the current Revs streak of nine unbeaten with a four-game winning streak, a four-game draw streak, and a win at Montreal last time out…it’s fair to say Cincy is well deserved of their second place position given the Revs woeful slow start at the beginning of the year.
New England has injury issues of their own, with Ignatius Ganago going on the short term injury list with a leg injury picked up on international duty with Cameroon. Leo Campana and Luca Langoni are also questionable on the availability report with Campana actually departing the Ecuador camp early to return stateside for rehab.
Whether or not the Revs new and improved 3-5-2 formation has enough firepower to take advantage of Cincy’s current defensive struggles remains to be seen but should be the talking point throughout the day and especially when the lineups come out.
Joining us as always is our good friend Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press who was kind enough to stop reading Bengals defensive line contracts to answer a few questions. Be sure to head on over to their site for their side of the game coverage. You can also listen to Sam on the Jersey Swap podcast on Cincinnati Soccer Talk with Geoff Tebbetts.
And please Bengals front office, stop bungling things… unless you want to trade Trey Hendrickson to Philly so we can watch the throwball offseason implode further.
TBM: FC Cincinnati is still in second place in the East, but they are winless in four and have given up 9 goals in their last three games. Is something up with the defense, what's changed the past few weeks?
LP: The dropoff seems to directly correlate to Nick Hagglund's injury that took him off the field in the 14th minute at Atlanta. All four goals conceded that game happened after his exit, including one almost immediately after and stemming from a miscommunication on the backline. Within five minutes, Atlanta had a 2-0 lead. Hagglund was playing arguably the best soccer of his seven years with Cincinnati, despite coming back from a 2024 season-ending ankle surgery that had most people thinking he would be the fifth centerback of the group. His energy and leadership is irreplaceable. Looking specifically at the weaknesses since he's been out, the biggest issue lately has been set-piece defending, and that was an area where Hagglund contributed as one of FCC's best defenders in the air. It doesn't help that Matt Miazga hasn't been able to go a full 90 minutes yet in his return from 2024 season-ending knee surgery and isn't back to his pre-injury form. You could also point to rotation the last two games and the fact that Obinna Nwobodo has been coming back from an injury and not starting regularly. Now, add to the concerns the fact Miles Robinson is away with the U.S. national team for the Gold Cup and Teenage Hadebe had been looking like he needed a break when he went off to play 180 minutes in two friendlies with Zimbabwe, just returning Wednesday night. It's not ideal, so we could see a formation change to a four-man back line to account for the lack of options at centerback right now.
TBM: The midseason summer silly season is almost here, any interesting rumors in Cincy right now? Any position you think they should be targeting to shore up the roster?
LP: FC Cincinnati definitely can still improve the roster this summer, and it seems the focus is on adding a U22 midfielder and/or wingback. The team doesn't have a true backup for Pavel Bucha, who has probably been the most underrated player this season. When he's not on the field, it's noticeable how much they need him. Yuya Kubo can normally fill that role but he's been dealing with multiple injuries this season and just doesn't seem to be a solution. He's also in the last year of his contract.
The big question mark really is who might be on the move out. Kubo had been linked back to his boyhood club in Japan, so it seems maybe there could be something more behind the scenes than just him being injured. Then there's forward Corey Baird, who has hardly played in the last two months and wasn't even on the trip to Columbus in mid-May. The club signed journeyman Kei Kamara and that seemed to be a clear indication Baird isn't in the plans. He's come in as a backup wingback at times and just really doesn't fit the roster, especially going unused at his $712K compensation. If there isn't a trade partner to be found, he might be worth the buyout to clear cap space and let him find another opportunity elsewhere. Luca Orellano also has interest from Cruz Azul. FCC declined an offer in January, then extended his contract to a new five-year deal that includes a $7 million release clause. Cruz Azul continues to pursue him, but I'm told the latest offer is only for a loan, and FCC isn't interested in that. There's another rumor Independiente in Argentina was interested, but there are no offers yet. It would take a team willing to spend on the transfer fee to trigger the release and Orellano would want a raise. He's already a high-TAM player here.
If any of those players leave, I still think FCC should go after another starting forward or CAM to play next to Evander. Orellano was supposed to be in that front three but hasn't done well in that role, so now he's back to wingback and although homegrown player Dado Valenzuela has taken big steps this year, if FCC wants to win trophies this year, a proven attacker is the big missing piece. Kevin Denkey might not last here long before he's scooped up by a big club in Europe, so the club needs to take advantage of this window to find him a partner up top.
TBM: What needs to happen for Cincy to stay in the hunt for the Supporter's Shield? Which player having an improved or better second half would key a strong finish or a playoff run?
LP: FCC desperately needs Miazga to get back to his pre-injury form. He was so good before that injury and you can still see how much he means to the defense, but if he can get to that next level, it would solve a lot of problems. Right now, he just looks a step too slow, and then he's had two minor injuries happen where he's taken himself out of the game. In the past, he would push through those, but he's not confident enough yet in his knee to do that. I also think keeping Nwobodo healthy is important because Brian Anunga can fill in from time to time and provide solid defense but he doesn't progress the ball as well as Nwobodo (or at all it sometimes seems). Offensively, Cincy needs Orellano to start contributing goals, but I think it's less crucial than seeing improvement from Miazga and keeping Nwobodo on the pitch. Orellano has looked really good in recent games and had some assists but just still hasn't found the scoresheet. None of the wingbacks are scoring goals, though.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/etc.
(4-2-3-1)
Denkey
Valenzuela-Evander-Orellano
Bucha-Nwobodo
Engel-Hadebe-Miazga-Yedlin
Celentano
Out: Kubo (lower leg), Hagglund (chest), Robinson (international duty)
Also of note: Sergio Santos (calf) has been off to the side or not training this week but is considered "available." I doubt he will start and might not even be on the bench.
Prediction: 2-1 FC Cincinnati. I almost went with a 1-1 draw because I just think these two teams tend to play tight games and it just feels like a game that could end in a draw, but when I'm not feeling as optimistic about FCC, they tend to surprise me, so I am going with a win for the visitors. On paper, the Orange and Blue have been the better team and I think the defense still has enough pieces to overcome the adversity it currently faces, particularly now going up against a Revs team that has struggled to score this season. Cincinnati's attack has been making strides in recent games and two goals has been pretty typical.