What Stats Say About Revs So Far

We know what the results say about the Revs so far in MLS this season, do the stats tell a better story?

Photo Courtesy of J. Alexander Dolan

The New England Revolution might only be five games into the 2024 MLS season but in their first break from MLS play, we’re already on a desperate search for optimism. There’s little optimism to be had looking at the standings, that much is well known since the Revs have one point from a possible fifteen and reside all the way at the bottom of the MLS standings.

Even if we just limit it to how it looks in the Eastern Conference, the Revs already have five points and five teams between them and the last playoff spot. Among Eastern Conference teams, the Revs have been outscored by every team, except NYCFC, allowed the most goals, and own the worst goal difference at -7. All the other fourteen EC teams have at least one win, the Revs are among just three teams in all of MLS without a win so far.

The results paint a pretty bleak picture. A fan’s vision of how their team is doing is usually heavily influenced by results but we have two other tools at our disposal to help shape a truer vision of what this team is exactly: what we see when we watch and the deeper stories that statistics can tell.

Before the season started, I selected eight stats to look at in each game and directly compare the Revs to their opponent. In each of the Revs’ three home games, from which they’ve taken one point, they had more shots, shots on target, shots in the penalty area, touches in the opponent’s half and penalty area, and corners. They also had a higher expected goals and a higher xG from open play. The stats show complete and total domination at home in those eight categories, which rewarded the Revs with one entire point.

And you might be saying the attacking play was better last season, that hasn’t clearly been the case, statistically. The Revs are averaging, including the two away game disasters, more shots, more shots on target, more corners, and more touches in the penalty area so far this season than last season. And the xG and xG from open play are essentially flat this year compared to last.

That set of stats doesn’t support what many of us are seeing when we watch. What we see can’t be ignored just because of some selection of generally agreed-upon stats. Soccer statistics are vital for understanding the game and analyzing it but they are not as total a replacement for what we see as stats may be for other sports, like baseball. Baseball was once described as essentially a collection of set pieces. Soccer is far more intricate and fluid.

So what are we seeing? One narrative that has emerged is the Rev’s attacking play leaves a lot to be desired. It’s oftentimes slow and ponderous, with no sense of imperative to push deeper into the opponent’s territory and an outright aversion to counter-attacking. If we delve deeper into the treasure trove of statistics from FBref.com, there is support for this narrative to be found.

The Revs are third in MLS in total touches per game, averaging 693, behind only FC Dallas and LA Galaxy. When it comes to touches in the attacking third, the Revs average 154, good only for 10th in the league. They slip further in touches in the opponent’s area, their 21 touches per game puts them 16th. The Revs spend most of their time on the ball in the midfield third and have registered the second-highest number of touches per game in the middle across all of MLS.

That’s definitely a confluence of what we’re seeing and statistical support. It’s also been pointed out, notably by Sean Donahue of Revolution Recap, that the Revs are losing the ball at inopportune times during build-up play. The fact that the Revs are being dispossessed a league-leading 12.2 times per game lends strong support to this one as well.

But the Revs are pressing more this year! Even if the build-up play is stalling in midfield and even if the Revs are reluctant to counter-attack the high press will deliver goal-scoring opportunities. Pressing is the new playmaker, after all, according to Jurgen Klopp. The Revs are indeed pressing, according to theAnalyst.com, they’re disrupting their opponent’s build-up play with a defensive action every 10.2 passes. That’s sixth best in the league so far. Last season, the Revs ranked 21st.

Before we get too excited about this welcome development, if we look just one column over from the above, the Revs have created 40 high turnovers from those defensive actions outside their defensive third. Fifteen MLS teams have created more. Oh. Those high turnovers have led to six shots, which ranks 13th. So not great then. Yes, they are pressing more but the effectiveness has been limited thus far.

The Revs’ shots from high turnovers may be limited but not shots overall. They rank 6th in the league in shots per game and 4th for shots on target. The quality of those shots has been questioned, as has where they are taken from. The xG per 90 minutes is 1.22, 17th in the league. Not many goals have come the Revs this season, 5 in 5, but xG wouldn’t suggest there should have been much more.

The Revs are also shooting from further away from goal, on average, than all but six teams in the league. They have an average of 4.4 shots per game blocked, the fifth-highest rate in MLS. Shooting from distance and with a defender directly in front of you is generally not advisable for goal scoring or even expected goal scoring or anything that is going to help the Revs turn this bus around.

And just to continue beating the bus analogy to death, some people have blamed Bruce Arena’s abdicating of being the driver of this bus to the team’s struggles this season. It’s more likely though that Matt Turner and Đorđe Petrović getting off the bus at Logan Airport and heading to England is the biggest cause of decline.

While many Revs fans sang nothing but the highest of praises for Bruce during his tenure of short, sarcastic, and arrogant answers in press conferences and masterful leaning against the advertising boards during games, the strong performances from Turner’s shot-stopping and out-of-this-world play from Petro were masking over the vulnerabilities of what we thought was one of MLS’ best teams.

The stats strongly back this up.

All told, Revolution goalkeepers from 2021 to 2023, whoever they were, led MLS in the eloquently named Post Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed category with a cumulative of +20.6. Basically, it measures how many goals a goalkeeper should have allowed based on where the shot was when it reached the target minus how many were actually allowed. So in three seasons, the Revs allowed 20.6 fewer goals than they should thanks to their goalkeepers. No one else was really even close, only 11 teams even had a positive rate at all and only three of those 11 had a rate higher than 10.

Through five games this season, the Revs have a PSxG minus GA of +.1, only eight teams have faired worse. According to this metric, Ravas and Edwards have essentially made the saves they should have made this season and no more. They haven’t been doing poorly but they haven’t been great either.

We can conclude our search feeling pretty confident that the results, the stats and our eyes are all joined together in painting a dismal picture of the Revs season so far. Furthermore, Bruce, Turner, and Petrovic aren’t walking back onto this bus anytime soon.

Who’s ready for Club America?

All of the stats included in this article were provided by TheAnalyst.com and FBref.com, if you enjoy this sort of stuff, please check out those two sites. Also, I have recently upgraded to FBRef’s paid site, which offers a search tool for multiple games and seasons for both players and teams. If you want me to dig into anything for you, shoot me a DM on Substack or comment below!