Unbeaten in Eight, Revs Continue to Struggle in Second Half

Have they actually turned a corner?

Photo by J. Alexander Dolan

I last posted a stats focused article on March 28, following a 2-1 loss at NYCFC. The following match was a home matchup against RBNY and the chatter at that time was… well, let’s just say things weren’t looking good for Caleb Porter.

New England managed their first win of the season that weekend, on a 90+8’ PK converted by Carles Gil.

Since that game, the Revs have gone on to lose just once in nine matches (in league play) and are currently riding an eight-game unbeaten streak.

Revs Fans on April 12th

The point I tried to get across, in my analysis way back in March, was that there were plenty of warning sirens, blaring loudly that the Revs were looking at a repeat of 2024’s dismal season.

It turns out that I was wrong.

Or, rather, the conclusion I drew was wrong. The Revs have definitely improved in places since last season.

For one, the shift in formation seems to have allowed Carles Gil to take more control of the offense.

Here we can see his expected assisted goals (a measure of xG on shots following his passes) take a sharp upward turn around the time of the formation switch against Atlanta United. More support from wingbacks in the wide portions of the field and good defensive support give Gil more opportunities to run the game from the center of the attack. That’s led to more goals. Add that to a stingier defense and you have a playoff-capable foundation, something New England did not have last year.

I maintain, however, that I was correct to be concerned about the underlying numbers. Here are the stats I was looking at back in late March/early April.

Offensively, the Revs weren’t generating much overall and were seemingly getting worse in the second half of games. Meanwhile, defensively, they did well to limit opponents. However, that too changed in the 2nd half with the Revolution conceding 87 percent more expected goals after the break.

That was a while ago, and New England is on an eight game unbeaten run. Surely we’ve seen a corresponding improvement of those underlying numbers?

Well…

On a positive note, it’s clear that the Revs are generating more chances. They’re scoring more goals, as well.

But they’re also generally conceding more chances, and furthermore, they continue to cede control of the game in the 2nd half.

Their xG drops 30 percent from 0.96 to 0.67 on average from the first half to the second half. Their opponents, meanwhile, surge in the second half with a 73 percent increase in xG.

Using expected goal differential (New England’s xG minus their opponent’s xG) as a crude indicator of which team was on the front foot, we get a pretty damning picture of how the Revs operate after the halftime whistle.

The green bars show first half xGD while the red ones show second half xGD. There are no positive values in the second half to be found.

The Revs best performance, against Toronto, saw New England merely equal their opponent, with neither squad creating more danger than the other. Otherwise, their opponents have generated more xG in every other second half all year.

So what gives? In spite of an uptick in form, there’s no commensurate change in the flow of momentum.

It feels like there is an underpinning of tactical identity at fault here. We know that New England is capable of generating chances and (though not as often as they should) scoring goals. The Revs are capable of controlling the game and being on the front foot. When the game draws to a close, however, they simply don’t.

It’s obvious to see the downsides after the Revolution dropped back-to-back leads in the second half (at SKC, at DC). The tactics that lead to those results, however, has been there all along.

Time will tell but if I were to guess, those tactics will continue to be there into the future.