Know Thy Enemy: Revolution at Houston Dynamo Rebuild Theory Edition
Know Thy Enemy: Revolution at Houston Dynamo Rebuild Theory Edition
New England still needs to win out to secure a playoff spot, while Houston looks to climb higher in the messy West midtable.
The New England Revolution look to build off last weekend’s 1-0 win over Nashville SC and keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive at Houston’s Shell Energy Stadium tonight at 830 pm EDT (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass).
Bolstered by a stellar campaign Best XI campaign from midfielder Hector Herrera last year, Houston made the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and second since 2014 all while reaching the Western Conference Final as well as claiming the Open Cup.
A far cry from the team that dueled so frequently with the Revs in MLS Cup Finals decades ago.
Head Coach Ben Olsen took over at the beginning of the 2023 season, fixing a team that won 20 games between the COVID-shortened 2020 season through the end of 2022 and never threatened in the West since they spent most of the time in the basement. Last year’s playoff and Cup run has carried over as the Dynamo are right around their 1.5 PPG they preformed at last year though the bunched West means there’s not much separation amongst the playoff teams.
Now Houston is the tenth highest spending team I think…mostly due to Herrera’s $5M salary and naturally aided the modest salary that the goal scoring machine that is Latif Blessing making $715K. By the way, he’s got five, yes 5, goals this year which is tied for second on the team behind Ibraham Aliyu with six. So they’re not breaking the bank while competing with the majority of that talented West and seem to be doing just fine without a signature goal scorer and several key injuries throughout the year
Anyway, I always thought Ben Olsen got a bad rap in DC but he inherited a not great squad there and got them into the top two in the East in 2012 and 2014 with that weird Wooden Spoon/Open Cup winning year in 2013. But his teams were largely consistent, played hard but didn’t have a lot of playoff success to speak for his tenure but no, they perhaps did not play an attractive brand of soccer most of the time.
But as far as quick rebuilds go, Olsen has done it twice almost immediately with two different teams and probably to not a whole lot of fanfare for someone who has about 170 MLS wins and a Manager of the Year award. And I think that suits him just fine.
Contrast that with the Revs in their current situation being unable to rebound under known early tenure winner Caleb Porter…maybe the Revs should have opted for that quiet consistency instead of the win-now pressure cauldron they’ve put themselves in.
We decided to do a little theory crafting with our good friend Dustyn Richardson of now Bayou City Soccer fame on Olsen’s system and success and just how deep this Houston squad could go in the West. Make sure to check out their site for their side of the game coverage.
TBM: Ben Olson has about 170 MLS wins as a head coach, and after several years in the West basement, the Dynamo rebuild is no longer a theory. What as Olson and the club done right over the last two years?
DR: They have really bought into Olsen and his system from top to bottom. The Dynamo have a front office and recruitment team that has built out a squad to play Olsen's possession style and they have been able to find all the right pieces. Hector Herrera has also turned into the star they envisioned when they signed him, earning MLS Best XI last season and continuing to be their rock this year. Olsen is the kind of coach that players love to play for and they have bought into him and his staff. It's been pretty incredible to see how fast they were able to turn it around from, like you said, a bottom feeder to winning the USOC and making the Western Conference Final last season.
TBM: Hector Herrera naturally was going to drop off his 17 assist pace from last year, but who is keying the Dynamo attack this year? It very much looks like a goal scoring by committee thing going on.
DR: The goal scoring continues to be their biggest issue. Herrera missed a chunk at the beginning of the season with a knee injury and is currently nursing another injury. Sebastian Ferreira was their DP striker last year but he quickly fell out of favor with Olsen and has become a bench guy for the most part (although he started last week). New DP striker Ezequiel Ponce scored 4 goals in his first 8 games in all comps but got hurt and missed last weekend's loss in Seattle. If Ponce or Ferreira aren't scoring, the weight falls on guys like Aliyu Ibrahim, Amine Bassi, and Sebastian Kowalczyk. They, along with Coco Carrasquilla, score the occasional goals but not enough to lead the offense.
TBM: Houston currently sits 6th in a very messy West playoff slog, can they get up to 4th and host a first round series and how do you think they would fare against either of the LA teams in the later rounds?
DR: It's going to be tough after the loss to Seattle Saturday. They've won a club record eight games on the road this season so not having home field for the first round may not be a big issue for them. The Dynamo did the double against LAFC in the regular season this year but they did the same thing last season and then lost to them in the Western Conference Final. Houston hosts the Galaxy on Decision Day in what could be a big litmus test for the Dynamo.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.
Lineup - Clark; Escobar, Micael, Sviatchenko, Steres; Artur, Carrasquilla; Aliyu, Bassi, Kowalczyk; Ponce
Injuries - Herrera will most likely miss another match with his injury. Ponce and Latif Blessing should be back. Lawrence Ennali and Nelson Quinones are out for the season with knee injuries. Starting right back Griffin Dorsey is also out for this match with yellow card accumulation
Prediction - the Dynamo have struggled at times this season at home but this is a match they need to win. I don't think it will be pretty but I think they'll get the job done 1-0.