Midseason Review: Hartford Athletic Still Searching for Answers as 2024 Rebuild Continues

Hartford have shown improvement from a dreadful 2023, but the bar was low and expectations were higher. Here's a look at what's not gone to plan for Brendan Burke in 2024.

Image courtesy of Hartford Athletic

At the midpoint of the 2024 USL Championship season, Hartford Athletic have occasionally shown promise — particularly in attack — but have largely been disappointing. It’s certainly been a huge improvement on last season, as the Latics have already surpassed their league win total from 2023 and are only one point shy of their points total as well.

On the other hand, however, expectations for this team were much higher than that, and the results so far have left everyone from manager Brendan Burke, to the players, to the fans frustrated and searching for answers.

Ahead of a crucial back half of the season, here’s a look at what’s not quite gone to plan for Hartford so far in Brendan Burke’s first year at the helm.

Lacking in The Attack

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Most critically, perhaps, the attack has misfired. The Latics have been shut out seven times in their 17 league games, and have scored more than one goal only four times. The 15 total goals the club has scored are joint-least in the league.

When you remove penalties and look at the attacking output on a game-adjusted basis, Hartford are one of only four teams averaging less than a goal a game. A lot of the problem here is down to a lack of finishing.

Expected goals are by no means a perfect assessment of a teams attacking performance, but by that measure, the Latics are almost exactly in the middle of the table (13th out of 24 teams). At the same time, a mid-table attack is not really what was expected from this side, and it’s reasonable to ask questions about why there aren’t more chances being created.

Bleeding Goals

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The other significant problem is that Hartford have had arguably the worst defense in the league through the first half of the season. No team in either conference has a worse xGA (expected goals against), and only three — Miami FC, Rhode Island FC and FC Tulsa — have conceded more actual goals. The Latics frequently look extremely disorganized in defense, and it’s only through the profligacy of the opposition that they haven’t conceded more goals at this juncture.

Taken in combination, the punchless attack and the pourous defense means that the Latics have the second-worst xGD (expected goal difference) and the third-worst actual goal difference in the league. The position in the table is unsurprising given those realities, even if it doesn’t bear any resemblance to preseason expectations.

So what exactly has gone wrong? Defense is perhaps the most explicable piece of the puzzle, as there were question marks over several players coming into the season. Thomas Vancaeyezeele and Jordan Scarlett were returning from long injury layoffs, Rece Buckmaster was benched last season by a Memphis 901 FC team that almost immediately improved, and Triston Hodge was one of the few returnees from last season’s poor defensive unit. A lot needed to go right for this unit to even be average, and very little has gone right. 

The plan seems to have been for a back four of Hodge, Farrell, Scarlett and Buckmaster, but injuries and international duty meant that group hardly played together, and only Scarlett has been ever-present when healthy and available. Vancayaezeele acquitted himself well enough in the early stages of the season, but has subsequently been moved to defensive midfield, to mixed results.

Loanee Joey Akpunonu has been in and out of the lineup, playing both at right-back and in the middle, again with mixed results. Samadia has been given more minutes of late, but it’s probably too early to say much about his performances. Younes Boudadi — who was acquired in a player swap with Indy Eleven on June 14 — has been predictably dynamic going forward and beatable in defense. In short, there’s hardly a defensive player on the roster who has shown any consistency, and the constant lineup changes have made it very difficult for any group of players to really develop an understanding.

Star Power Misfiring

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Hartford’s punchless attack is harder to fathom. Coming into this season, the roster was full of forwards who had demonstrated their ability to make a difference in this league, but the production on the pitch has been sorely lacking, and two of those players — Romario Williams and Enoch Mushagalusa — have already been shown the door. 

Part of the problem in attack has been that the parts ultimately seemed somewhat mismatched. Romario Williams has been one of the most efficient forwards in the league over his career, but seemed entirely out of place in Hartford, lacking the dynamic pressing presence that Burke’s system requires.

Mamadou Dieng’s lack of scoring instinct is worrying, but it’s no coincidence that some of the most fluid attacking football the Latics have played this season have been with him in the middle. It’s too early to say what extended minutes will show — and the goals will need to come more regularly at some point — but the 19-year-old’s ability to press, to win the ball, to hold up play and to release the other attackers are things that this attack sorely needs, and has been lacking so far this season.

Another component of the trouble in attack has been that Michee Ngalina has not quite lived up to expectations. The scoring has been there — his numbers in this regard compare favorably to both of his career-best seasons in Colorado Springs that marked him as one of the mot dangerous attacking pieces in the league — but his creative numbers have declined.

At his dynamic best, Ngalina creates as much for other players as for himself. This season, however, he has just the two assists so far, which matches his worst USL Championship season as a provider. Some of this is not to do with him; there’s been a lack of movement elsewhere in the attack that compounds the problem and allows opposing defenses to focus on Ngalina and limit his effectiveness.

The midfield has been somewhat stodgy, and the fullbacks haven’t consistently been making the overlapping runs that will help loosen things up, with the consequence that Ngalina (and Beckford) can feel extremely isolated in attack. At the same time, there’s a need for players like Ngalina to perform like stars; it is a team game, but the best players set the tone.

Can It Get Better?

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Is there any hope for improvement in the second half of the season? There’s always hope in lower-division football; it seems all but guaranteed that at least one team will collapse between now and October, and teams that were scuffling at the half-way mark in previous seasons, like Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC, have gone on to win titles. More realistically, though, a few things need to happen for this side to produce more positive results.

Firstly, settling the defense. It may very well be that there is no combination of players on the roster who will can become a good defense, but barring additional transfers in, committing to a particular back four, allowing them to develop an understanding and giving them the best chance to be the best group they can be is critical. If Boudadi, Akpononu, Scarlett and Samadia are the pieces of a back line that Brendan Burke has the most confidence in, they need to be given time to gel. A marginal improvement may be all that’s possible, but a marginal improvement may be all this team needs to turn a few losses into draws and a few draws into wins.

Secondly, the attack needs to start clicking. There have been bright spots this season, and Dieng, Beckford and Ngalina have shown glimpses of being an effective front three when played together. Like the defense, though, this group needs more competitive minutes together. The attacking play in the first half against Charleston was encouraging, and reminiscent of the assertive approach the Latics demonstrated earlier in the season against Memphis as well — both games featured the same front three.

Finally, there’s a desperate need for a more dynamic dimension in midfield. Marcus Epps can feature here from time to time, but is truthfully better suited out wide, and of the players on the roster, only Danny Barrera can really provide a more creative option. At this stage of his career, however, he’s extremely limited in the other aspects of his game. These realities would suggest the best solution is a roster addition, but that’s easier said than done, and so there is likely to be a lot of pressure on Jay Chapman and Anderson Asiedu to produce a little more attacking verve.

Ultimately, Brendan Burke’s teams have lived and died by being able to play attacking football. In the past, he’s been able to get the best out of his players in this phase of the game and cover for weaknesses elsewhere. If that can happen here, and if the Latics can go from one of the worst attacking teams in the league to merely mid-table, this side will likely be good enough to make the playoffs. That seems like a plausible outcome, but a lot has to go right for that to come to fruition, and Hartford has extraordinarily little room for error at the moment.

In any case, one thing remains true — the Latics head into the second half of the season needing a turnaround. They currently sit eight points out of the playoff positions, with at least one game in hand over every team above them. It’s not the biggest mountain to climb, of course, and it’s likely that a point total in the low 40’s will be enough to make the playoffs, but still: if things continue as they are, Hartford fans will be waiting another year for a playoff game.

The road begins on Saturday night as Hartford heads to Pittsburgh for the second meeting between the two sides this season — the first yielded a 2-0 result in favor of Burke’s men at Trinity Health Stadium.