Know Thy Enemy: The Revs/RBNY Recovering Miami Blowout Help Group Edition
Both the Revs and Red Bulls got steamrolled in their recent games against Inter Messi CF, but does that mean anything?
Yesterday I posted a rather large column about how direct and vertical the Revs are not statistically playing, how much it seemed that Porter wanted the Revs to playing out of the back, and maybe that the head coach is coming around on the idea that his team might be really good at the whole counterattacking thing. Or at least better at it then they are in possession in their own half.
There is some RBNY-specific analysis in yesterday’s post but that was more a general concept thing. If Porter is serious about the Revs vertical, more aggressive playing style then that should benefit the team well overall. But there’s also the specific matchup that is the Energy Drinks.
This is not the smothering ninety minute full gegenpress fueled by the actual Red Bull beverage, but it’s something in between for RBNY now. The Red Bulls attack is still fairly potent and is far more intricate than the very direct Struber era. But it appears that the fatal flaw for RBNY might be the same as New England’s.
I’ll let my guest Ben Cork explain in further detail down below, but this might be far more of a mirror matchup than in years past. While both teams can still punish you on the counter and can excel in that aspect of the game, it seems the current RBNY team is trying to be at least a little more balanced. This means giving teams a little more space than we’re used too having a much less direct attacking style, even if that backfires spectacularly because Lionel Messi is a cheat code.
Which is why I think it is still imperative for the Revolution to limit the number of opportunities for mistakes at the back by perhaps being a little too vertical at times. Prior to their 6-2 thumping in Miami as Messi and Suarez ran rampant in the second half, RBNY had only allowed 10 goals in their first 10 games so chances will be at a premium. If Porter does truly believe this is the Revs best style, let’s see if he can implement it in a way that can steal a result in a place where the Revs aren’t known for claiming many points.
The Revs ability to create some extra opportunities and/or their own good fortune - like they did in Chicago in the second half - could be the springboard and result they need to truly begin the post-Bruce reset. If this game specifically comes down to which team makes fewer major mistakes, especially on the ball, then where those mistakes occur - i.e. in your own half - could be the deciding or significant factor in big chances created or given away.
So this might be just a happy little thought, but it could be ideal for Porter and the Revs to enforce this newfound love of verticality with impunity to keep the ball a safe distance away from goal a little more often, even if that means giving the ball away. And you know maybe notch your first multi-goal game in regular season play, that would be good too we’re a third of the way through the campaign. Save the more beautiful Guardiola possession soccer for whenever the Revs get out of the basement and have their full complement of healthy wide players like Borrero and DeJuan Jones back a full strength.
Earlier in the week I joined the legend himself Mark Fishkin on his Seeing Red Podcast to preview the Revs game with him. My interview starts at the 25 minute mark but the entire show is great. Notice the devilish plotting gesture he makes with his hands when I talk about how slow the Revs have been playing out of the back so far this year…almost eliminates that bad feeling I had for wearing a UConn MBB title shirt in front of the pro-Boilermaker Fishkin clan. At least I got the hat right.
After my lovely chat with Mark, our good friend Ben Cork formerly of Once a Metro and now with the View from 202 podcast was kind enough to answer some questions and start what I can only imagine is going to be a quickly expanding self help group for fans who got rolled by Messi and Co. Check out their most recent episode here.
TBM: So Miami huh? I know that feeling, what caused that game to snowball out of control and how unusual was that to happen to an RBNY defense?
BC: It’s hard to say how unusual it is at this point in the season. Sandro Schwarz has come in and made a genuine effort to update the team’s playing style — which, on the defensive end, has meant dialing back the pressing tendencies away from the extremes of the Gerhard Struber era and giving a team like Miami slightly more space than they would have received from a Red Bulls team in years past.Â
On the offensive end under Schwarz, the team is somewhat successfully trying to play on the ground and pass to feet more — but this leads to the risk of moments like the Wiki Carmona defensive third turnover that led to Miami’s second goal last weekend.
Another concern is that this game played in May in South Florida was the beginning of what seems to be a yearly midseason swoon for the Red Bulls, when the high-energy pressing and transition system is challenged by the stifling heat and humidity of the North American summer.
But at the end of the day, it was only the team’s second loss of the season, so the system is undeniably working to some degree. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a team that has Lionel Messi…and Luis Suarez…and Busquets…and…you get it, I’ll stop.
TBM: Lewis Morgan is good at soccer but talk about him and the RBNY offense that has started the season pretty well with 16 goals in 11 games.
BC: As mentioned above, the team is playing a much more fluent attacking game under Schwarz, with more cohesive and rehearsed passing patterns proving a breath of fresh air after the ugly longball attack of the Struber years.
But the concern does remain that much of the team’s success this year has been Lewis Morgan’s confident final third form papering over otherwise uneven performances. Outside of the Messi-less fixture in New York in March that the Red Bulls won 4-0, the team is yet to have a truly explosive attacking performance. Former Leipzig star Emil Forsberg has provided a focal point and some occasional moments of magic, but has also struggled for consistency — at this point his five goal contributions in nine games is somewhat underwhelming for a player who was expected to drive the team into trophy contention.
Another interesting flourish that helps answer both the first two questions is that Schwarz has blamed some of the team’s poor defensive results not on defensive structure — but instead on an inability for the attack to escape with the ball and relieve pressure. It appears that the attack will have to improve for both the goal-scoring and goal-preventing to turn around.
TBM: The Red Bulls will host a first round playoff game (Top 4 seed) if they continue to do (or start doing) what?Â
BC: Start winning the games they’re supposed to win. After opening the season with some eye catching results against contenders like Miami and Cincinnati, it’s now been over a month since the team has won a game following dropped points at home against teams like Chicago and Vancouver.
The Red Bull pressing style has always been one better-designed to catch big teams napping than it is to break down weaker teams happy to sit back and avoid risk. If Schwarz can develop the team’s passing play to a level that eventually threads this needle, this team is capable of dominating any team in MLS on the day.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/etc.
Coronel; D. Nealis, S. Nealis, Eile, Tolkin; Edelman, Amaya, Forsberg, Gjengaar; Morgan, Vanzeir
INJURIES: injury reports have been somewhat vague, the only sure thing injuries at the moment are midfield shuttler Peter Stroud and teenage winger Serge Ngoma.
PREDICTION: The Revs could be a strange opponent. They’re obviously not having a great start to the season and could be the sort of bunkering road team New York struggles against, but Caleb Porter has a reputation for the type of expansive attacking and open play that the Red Bulls to exploit. I’ll say a 2-2 draw.