Know Thy Enemy: Revs vs NYCFC Eastern Home Cooking Edition
Winning home games has always been the foundation of a successful season, but the East could be starting to take that old adage a little too seriously.
The New England Revolution will face their first repeat opponent tonight when New York City FC comes to Gillette Stadium (7:30 PM EDT, MLS Season Pass).
NYCFC won the first match at Yankee Stadium a month ago, a 2-1 affair that saw the Revs “score” their first goal of the season via an own goal before the Pigeons tallied on either side of halftime to claim all three points.
That’s not what intrigues me about this matchup, mostly because we saw it not that long ago. The only difference is now the Revs are far healthier than they were a month ago and are coming off a win in which they used a three-centerback formation.
I don’t think the Revs will use that again today, but with Tomas Chancalay and Leo Campana working back to full fitness, it’s entirely possible they feature off the bench again.
NYCFC has long seemed the standard for home/away splits with their tremendous home field advantage being that darn postage stamp in the outfield of all those baseball stadiums they play in. Their most balanced campaign was the oddball COVID year in which they won seven games at home and five on the road, but usually they are very Jekyll and Hyde.
This is nothing new in MLS, where dominant home teams and average road teams can easily contend at the top of the table. But what’s going on right now barely two months into the year feels a little extreme.
The top four teams in the East — Columbus, Charlotte, Cincinnati, and Miami — are unbeaten at home. The next half dozen teams almost all have a better home record including Atlanta who has eight points at home in six games and just one point on the road from two games.
Chicago is the only true oddball, as they have three draws at home to go with three road wins in a surprising eighth place to start the year with 14 goals scored, which is pretty good for Gregg Berhalter’s new side that only won seven games last year and scored 40 goals total.
New England is still several wins from even getting involved in the logjam that is the East playoff spots. The Revs are still four points back of NYCFC and aside from RBNY with nine goals this year, everyone above them in the standings is already at double digit goals for the year. If the Revs are going to start climbing the standings, they need to start scoring, especially if road points like last week are an increasing rarity.
Joining us again is our good friend Matthew Mangam of Hudson River Blue for all things related to NYCFC, including my answers to his questions over on their site.
1) Last time we talked, we knew Alonso Martinez was good at soccer but needed someone else to step up in the goals department. A Hannes Wolf brace against Atlanta seems to fit the bill but how can NYCFC keep their Austrian striker involved?
1. Alonso Martínez is always going to be the forefront of the offense. When goals are needed, NYCFC looks to him. But when NYCFC isn't playing through balls to Martínez making a run in behind, the wingers like Julián Fernández and Hannes Wolf like to cut in or get into the box as well. Both of Wolf's goals were simple — he was at the right place at the right time. I like to think of him as the second poacher behind Martínez; he likes to get into the box by the goalkeeper. He only had five goals last season and already has three this season; I think he'll easily past last year's tally by the end of next month.
2) I will not miss the postage stamp field in the baseball outfield, but eventually NYC has to get tired of the Jekyll/Hyde Home/Away results thing right? Or is this just built into the team's DNA at this point?
2. It's 100 hundred percent built into this team's DNA. They're so used to either stadium that it doesn't matter where they are playing. Of course, NYCFC is much better at home than on the road but I think they are slightly used to Yankee Stadium more just because they've played more games there. NYCFC, fans, and the media can't wait for the stadium to open, but for now, they're playing just fine at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field.
3) Going back to the last Revs-NYC game, who was a player that stood out to you in that game or has stood out in the past few weeks?
3. I don't want to be basic and say Alonso Martínez, but that's the clear-cut answer. I'd also say Keaton Parks. He made his 200th career appearance last time out against Philadelphia and scored the lone goal in the loss to Minnesota. Besides that, he's been solid defensively and contributed to the offense. I'd like to see more from Agustín Ojeda or Julián Fernández — one of them will start on the wing along with Wolf against New England. Ojeda started last game and I think if he starts again this weekend, I'm expecting a goal or assist from him.
Lineup/Injuries/Predictions/Etc.
Matt Freese; Kevin O'Toole, Justin Haak, Thiago Martins, Mitja Ilenič; Jonny Shore, Keaton Parks; Agustín Ojeda, Maxi Moralez; Hannes Wolf; Alonso Martínez
I think Pascal Jansen sticks with what worked against Philadelphia. Andrés Perea is back from injury and will likely come on for Shore in the second half. Nico Cavallo is also back from injury, but I don't see O'Toole losing his spot at left back. The current center-back shuffle is something to monitor as well, we've seen Haak start there over Birk Risa at times, most recently last game. Risa has struggled with form and fitness early on this season, while Haak has looked great at center back and also as a defensive midfielder. I think this lineup is solid enough to complete the season sweep over New England. I think NYCFC wins 2-1.