Hartford Athletic Aim to Maintain Streak
The Western Conference leaders are unbeaten in 12 games as they arrive at Trinity Health Stadium
Hartford Athletic welcome Tulsa FC to Trinity Health Stadium on Saturday night, winners of three straight games and looking to consolidate a recent vein of form that has them right in the middle of the places in the Eastern Conference of the USL Championship.
Tulsa are in even better form, being unbeaten in its last 12, and claiming a key draw away at Louisville City that has to have the club in the conversation for the best team in the league.
The game is at least in part a tale of two attacks that are really clicking. Over the last seven games, Tulsa have scored 20 goals, better than any other team in the league over that stretch. Louisville City have been the second most prolific attack over the same time period but the third best goals-per-game output has been from Hartford Athletic. If the analysis shifts to expected goals, Hartford ranks first, and Tulsa second. Any way you slice it, these two clubs have two of the best attacks in the entire USL Championship at the moment.
For Hartford, the focal point of that attack has been Mamadou Dieng. With rumors beginning to swirl that a move to either MLS or Europe might be imminent, the forward is in the best form of his career, netting five goals in his last three games, being named to the Team of the Week in back-to-back weeks, claiming a Player of the Week honor in one of those weeks, and becoming Hartford’s all-time leading scorer along the way.
Ahead of Saturday’s match, Brendan Burke was full of praise for his number nine, emphasizing the improvements in his game over the last season-and-a-half, while also suggesting that Dieng might soon move to a bigger club.
“He's better in the air now when we have to clear a ball, he gets a touch,” Burke said. “He's better holding the ball when he has a big defender on his back. He's better at timing his runs. He's he's literally gotten better at everything that he has to do as a center forward. And that's why you know it soon it'll be time to go. So if you haven't had a chance to come out and watch him, I would recommend that people do that.”
It’s not just Dieng that has been in fine form of late. Michee Ngalina has rediscovered some of the electric, audacious attacking play that won him a Young Player of the Year award in Colorado Springs, with his play in the buildup to the second goal in Birmingham an example of the kind of sequence many expected when he arrived in Hartford, but has been actually on display too rarely. With a goal and two assists in his last three games for the club, and his relationship with both Dieng and full-back Emmanuel Samadia well-established, the forwards seems to be finally in the kind of form his club needs him to be in, and at a critical time.
Tulsa’s attack has also been excellent, with Taylor Calheira — scorer of 10 goals in the Championship and 14 in all competitions — the focal point. The key to understanding what Tulsa wants to do on attack is simple: move the ball forward quickly — no team in the league moves the ball vertically more quickly — and let Calheira terrorize opposing defenses in the box, either by scoring himself, or holding the ball up and creating for his teammates.
On the flip side, the underlying numbers suggest that the two clubs have fairly similar defenses. There’s virtually nothing to separate the two teams in terms of expected goals against over the last two months.
The actual results, however, have been different. Over that time period, only Sacramento have allowed fewer goals than Hartford, while Tulsa have given up the sixth-most in the entire league.
It might be possible to put some of this difference down to luck or Hartford’s opponents simply spurning their chances, but there is another factor, goalkeeper play. American Soccer Analysis’ ‘Goals Added’ metric ranks Hartford netminder Antony Siaha as the second-most valuable keeper in the league, behind only two-time USL Championship Golden Glove winner Danny Vitiello. Tulsa first-choice keeper Johan Peñeranda, however has been a different story, ranking 40th of 45 qualifying keepers by this metric.
Tulsa’s vertical attacking threat will also come up against a strength of the Hartford defense, which has done an excellent job of keeping things in front of them and limiting true counter-attacking opportunities. And if this is a strength-on-strength kind of situation, the reverse is less true.
Hartford are a top-five team in terms of their vertical passing threat, but Tulsa are vulnerable in this dimension so the Latics might find it easier to play the game on their own terms. Even if there are some signs that Hartford may have advantages, Tulsa are a tough opponent. One of the best-scoring road teams in the USL Championship, they have the tools to take the fight to the Latics and take all three points.
For Hartford, the last few weeks have given fans a glimmer of hope that this might finally be the year the team delivers on the field and with a USL Jägermeister Cup quarterfinal and another installment of El Clamico looming, another strong performance, and potentially a fourth consecutive league win, will send expectations even higher.