Catanese: Quick Breakdown of FIFA Intercontinental/UEFA World Cup Playoffs
European qualification will see their remaining four spots decided by 16 countries in four brackets while six worldwide nations head to Mexico in the spring to decide two more spots.
A quick note on the largely convoluted process of getting all 48 teams into the FIFA World Cup.
I dislike the number of playoff mechanisms each confederation (i.e. - continent) uses. The Intercontinental Playoff I think is great, a last chance qualifier for generally smaller nations to play their way in on merit because they were reasonably competitive during main qualification.
UEFA’s 16 team playoff that also pulls in four teams from Nations League qualification…is weird. I understand there are limits to the international calendar, but surely there had to be a way to have all of Europe in a system where they only need two teams advancing out of each group. Still having 16 teams alive in four playoff brackets seems…unnecessary, especially when you’re taking up the March window that could be used for roster evaluation three months out from the World Cup and having a lot of fan bases wondering if they’re wasting money and time buying tickets.
Now I like the six-team intercontinental playoff, I wish it was slanted towards CONCACAF as the host continent but the draw process essentially went “chalk” (for non-college basketball watchers, almost perfect seeding based on ranking) and that’s fine.
CONCACAF, or whichever of the smaller regions like Asia or Africa, should have had more than six automatic spots considering half of them are the hosts. Europe having 16 teams (one third of the available spots) seems like a solid number for them to always have but you could convince me of all 10 teams from South America having a chance to qualify. This is not to save the horrendous efforts of Costa Rica, Honduras, and Jamaica, but just a way to bring as much of a local focus to the tournament as possible.
More teams, and more debutants, is a great thing for FIFA. First time participants this year include Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, Curacao, and Jordan, all of which are going to be more commonplace and is a great step forward for the world’s game. I just think that based on where the tournament is being hosted, there should be a conceited effort to have more teams than normally allocated for the region.
Now I don’t think CONCACAF got shafted, but I do think something like eight teams but two intercontinental playoff spots would have been more appropriate. Would it have probably changed the qualification format, sure, but that was going to happen anyway with all the big North American teams already in as hosts. Do I think it would have been nice if Jamaica and Suriname had gotten the byes as the “home” continent teams, yes, but the draw basically ended up seeding the inter-continentals by world ranking which is not unfair.
For more rambling on all of this, Thomas Pinzone and I did a podcast after the final round of qualifiers came out (but before the playoff draws were announced) and did a deeper dive into those results as well as go briefly go through all the teams already in. I also had some USMNT/CONCACAF thoughts from last week as well.
Guadalajara, MEX (Estadio Akron): Jamaica-New Calendonia (March 26, 2026), winners vs DR Congo (March 31, 2026)
Monterrey, MEX (Estadio BBVA): Bolivia-Suriname (March 26, 2026), winners vs Iraq (March 31, 2026)
DR Congo and Iraq received “byes” based on their world rankings (56th and 58th respectively) and both won their continental playoff to get here. DR Congo getting through a four-team bracket of top second place CAF qualifiers beating Cameroon 1-0 and Nigeria on penalties (Gabon the other semifinalist). Iraq beat the UAE in the Asia fifth round 3-2 on aggregate after both teams finished as second place teams in the AFC fourth round round robins.
Bolivia were the seventh place finisher in the perfect CONEMBOL qualification process, a nice even double round robin. La Verde were the best of the rest despite allowing 35 goals in 18 matches but were buoyed by a solid offensive output of 17 goals and of course playing at home in La Paz. New Calendonia were the runners-up to New Zealand in Oceania having beaten Tahiti in their semifinal matchup.
Jamaica will be led by head coach Rudolph Speid after the resignation of Steve McClaren following the Reggae Boyz 0-0 draw with Curacao on the final matchday. Suriname survived into the playoff thanks to a late own goal by Guatemala, and with their ranking of 123rd in the world (New Calendonia at 149th) have a chance to break the record for lowest ranked team ever at a World Cup - potentially breaking 2010 North Korea’s record of 105th.
Now, in a perfect scenario Jamaica should not have any problem getting past a semi-pro level New Calendonia team with mostly a mix of local domestic and lower French league players. Suriname on the other hand is going to have a much tougher time with Bolivia but should be able to get a goal or two on the board given their defensive record.
DR Congo has not been to the World Cup since 1974 (when they were known as Zaire) and only finished two points behind Senegal in their group. They sport an almost entirely European based roster and finished in fourth place at the 2023 AFCON losing to eventual champions Ivory Coast in the semis. Iraq is a more domestic heavy roster with a few players scattered around in Europe, mostly playing in Scandinavian countries. The Lions of Mesopotamia struggled to score goals in qualifying, with just 9 goals in 10 games in the primary Asian round robin, finishing one point behind Jordan in their group before finishing behind Saudi Arabia on goal difference in the first playoff.
Iraq might the easier bracket but I think would be more likely to get upset. A win or go home game against Bolivia or Suriname could be a brutal but wildly entertaining defense struggle. I’m hoping a potential DR Congo-Jamaica game would be a wide open affair but given Jamaica’s struggles going forward as well as just the general turmoil they’re always in, it going to be a real challenge for CONCACF to get a seventh team into the World Cup.
Okay, so we have 12 group runner-ups and four Nations League teams in these playoffs, that will be indicated by the letter in the brackets. Home team listed first, first matchup has home priority for the do or die game… Same Int’l Window as the Intercontinentals - March 26 and March 31, 2026… here goes:
PATH A: Wales [J] vs Bosnia and Herzegovina [H] - Italy [I] vs Northern Ireland [NL4]
PATH B: Ukraine [D] vs Sweden [NL2] - Poland [G] vs Albania [K]
PATH C: Slovakia [A] vs Kosovo [B] - Turkey [E] vs Romania [NL1]
PATH D: Czech Republic [L] vs Ireland [F] - Denmark [C] vs North Macedonia [NL3]
Now, yes, Italy head coach Gennaro Gattuso might have a point about the European qualification process…but it’s only seemingly too hard for Italy who haven’t qualified for the last two World Cups and are in the playoff again. The real problem is Italy being unable to beat teams like Switzerland in the 2022 cycle (two draws, eliminated by North Macedonia in playoff) and being a Pot 2 against Spain in 2018 (lost to Sweden 0-1 in an aggregate playoff).
Going back to the 2018 cycle, European Pot 1 teams have made it to the World Cup the vast majority of the time. Just four top seeded teams have missed the World Cup in that stretch, Netherlands, Romania, and Wales in ‘18 and Italy in ‘22…but the Dutch were rolled up by an low balled French side and Romania and Wales really shouldn’t be top pot teams. If Italy and Denmark get bounced in the playoffs this time around, they could be the 5th and 6th teams to miss as top seeds.
Should Europe probably have fewer groups and automatic second place teams advance? Yeah sure. But maybe Italy should just focus on not losing to Norway by a combined 7-1 in their two group games…yes Haaland had three of those cause he’s ridiculous. No we’re not apologizing if Esmir Bajraktarevic eliminates the Azzurri again.
I think I am most interested in Path D here, Ireland is the feel good story this time around thanks to Troy Parrott’s heroics and North Macedonia’s upset of Italy last cycle almost gave us a cool Cinderella story before Ronaldo and Portugal ruined that dream. No one should ever root against Denmark after legend Christian Eriksen collapsed during the Euros back in 2021 even if they’re one of the favorites to advance on paper. Whoever comes out of this bracket I am going to be very interested to watch next summer.
Turkey and Ukraine are the other two top ranked sides but with teams like Poland ranked so close to them they’re far from runaway favorites and the whole Ukraine isn’t playing at home thing doesn’t help their cause but I think it would be tremendous for them to make it.
Kosovo I think is the lowest ranked side here but Sweden was the only fourth place finisher in their group to make it thanks to that newfangled Nations League thing. Kosovo won both games against Sweden in their group and would be another former Yugoslavian nation to return to the world stage.